Anthropic’s June 2026 launch of the safeguarded Fable 5 for general use and the more capable Mythos 5 via Project Glasswing reset the frontier release clock after the April Mythos Preview’s limited cyber-focused debut. Traders now price an early-September drop at the highest implied probabilities because Anthropic has expanded Mythos 5 access to additional defenders and integrated new security tooling in August, signaling that guardrails have matured enough for the next iteration. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family, xAI’s Grok 4.6, and Google’s Gemini Flash variants has compressed typical 3–5 month cycles, while ongoing U.S. government evaluations of autonomous cybersecurity capabilities remain the key gating factor. No official announcement has surfaced, leaving market-implied odds sensitive to any credible leak or benchmark update before the September 30 resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNext Mythos-Class Model released by…?
Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?
$790,099 Vol.
Oct 30, 2026
August 31
5%
September 1
47%
September 2
58%
September 4
76%
September 7
77%
September 9
82%
September 15
84%
September 30
91%
October 31
96%
$790,099 Vol.
August 31
$332,030 Vol.
5%
September 1
$34,240 Vol.
47%
September 2
$20,950 Vol.
58%
September 4
$17,318 Vol.
76%
September 7
$13,062 Vol.
77%
September 9
$86,337 Vol.
82%
September 15
$47,270 Vol.
84%
September 30
$164,435 Vol.
91%
October 31
$32,382 Vol.
96%
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Anthropic’s June 2026 launch of the safeguarded Fable 5 for general use and the more capable Mythos 5 via Project Glasswing reset the frontier release clock after the April Mythos Preview’s limited cyber-focused debut. Traders now price an early-September drop at the highest implied probabilities because Anthropic has expanded Mythos 5 access to additional defenders and integrated new security tooling in August, signaling that guardrails have matured enough for the next iteration. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family, xAI’s Grok 4.6, and Google’s Gemini Flash variants has compressed typical 3–5 month cycles, while ongoing U.S. government evaluations of autonomous cybersecurity capabilities remain the key gating factor. No official announcement has surfaced, leaving market-implied odds sensitive to any credible leak or benchmark update before the September 30 resolution window.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 8:48 AM ET
Volume
$790,099End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Anthropic’s June 2026 launch of the safeguarded Fable 5 for general use and the more capable Mythos 5 via Project Glasswing reset the frontier release clock after the April Mythos Preview’s limited cyber-focused debut. Traders now price an early-September drop at the highest implied probabilities because Anthropic has expanded Mythos 5 access to additional defenders and integrated new security tooling in August, signaling that guardrails have matured enough for the next iteration. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family, xAI’s Grok 4.6, and Google’s Gemini Flash variants has compressed typical 3–5 month cycles, while ongoing U.S. government evaluations of autonomous cybersecurity capabilities remain the key gating factor. No official announcement has surfaced, leaving market-implied odds sensitive to any credible leak or benchmark update before the September 30 resolution window.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$790,099End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s June 2026 launch of the safeguarded Fable 5 for general use and the more capable Mythos 5 via Project Glasswing reset the frontier release clock after the April Mythos Preview’s limited cyber-focused debut. Traders now price an early-September drop at the highest implied probabilities because Anthropic has expanded Mythos 5 access to additional defenders and integrated new security tooling in August, signaling that guardrails have matured enough for the next iteration. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family, xAI’s Grok 4.6, and Google’s Gemini Flash variants has compressed typical 3–5 month cycles, while ongoing U.S. government evaluations of autonomous cybersecurity capabilities remain the key gating factor. No official announcement has surfaced, leaving market-implied odds sensitive to any credible leak or benchmark update before the September 30 resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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