Claude's service reliability remains the central driver of trader positioning, with market-implied odds clustered tightly around 5–13 outage days reflecting uncertainty over Anthropic’s ability to maintain uptime amid rapid model scaling and user growth. High demand for large language model inference, combined with periodic infrastructure strain during feature rollouts or API updates, historically produces intermittent disruptions lasting hours to days. September’s typical post-summer activity surge adds further variability, while competitive pressure from rival platforms incentivizes Anthropic to prioritize stability. Traders appear to weigh these recurring technical and operational factors more heavily than any single upcoming catalyst, resulting in the balanced probabilities across the mid-range buckets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5-7 36%
8-10 33%
11-13 28%
<5 6.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<5
6%
5-7
36%
8-10
33%
11-13
28%
14+
6%
5-7 36%
8-10 33%
11-13 28%
<5 6.0%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<5
$233 Vol.
6%
5-7
$165 Vol.
36%
8-10
$146 Vol.
33%
11-13
$226 Vol.
28%
14+
$106 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Claude's service reliability remains the central driver of trader positioning, with market-implied odds clustered tightly around 5–13 outage days reflecting uncertainty over Anthropic’s ability to maintain uptime amid rapid model scaling and user growth. High demand for large language model inference, combined with periodic infrastructure strain during feature rollouts or API updates, historically produces intermittent disruptions lasting hours to days. September’s typical post-summer activity surge adds further variability, while competitive pressure from rival platforms incentivizes Anthropic to prioritize stability. Traders appear to weigh these recurring technical and operational factors more heavily than any single upcoming catalyst, resulting in the balanced probabilities across the mid-range buckets.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
Volume
$876End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Claude's service reliability remains the central driver of trader positioning, with market-implied odds clustered tightly around 5–13 outage days reflecting uncertainty over Anthropic’s ability to maintain uptime amid rapid model scaling and user growth. High demand for large language model inference, combined with periodic infrastructure strain during feature rollouts or API updates, historically produces intermittent disruptions lasting hours to days. September’s typical post-summer activity surge adds further variability, while competitive pressure from rival platforms incentivizes Anthropic to prioritize stability. Traders appear to weigh these recurring technical and operational factors more heavily than any single upcoming catalyst, resulting in the balanced probabilities across the mid-range buckets.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volume
$876End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Claude's service reliability remains the central driver of trader positioning, with market-implied odds clustered tightly around 5–13 outage days reflecting uncertainty over Anthropic’s ability to maintain uptime amid rapid model scaling and user growth. High demand for large language model inference, combined with periodic infrastructure strain during feature rollouts or API updates, historically produces intermittent disruptions lasting hours to days. September’s typical post-summer activity surge adds further variability, while competitive pressure from rival platforms incentivizes Anthropic to prioritize stability. Traders appear to weigh these recurring technical and operational factors more heavily than any single upcoming catalyst, resulting in the balanced probabilities across the mid-range buckets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions