**Claude Opus 5 variants dominate the implied probabilities because the July 24, 2026 release established new state-of-the-art results on key agentic and coding benchmarks while remaining the practical daily driver.** Anthropic positioned Opus 5 as approaching Fable 5 frontier performance on tasks like Frontier-Bench (43.3% vs. lower for predecessors and competitors), ARC-AGI-3, CursorBench, and GDPval-AA at half the token price of Fable 5 and identical pricing to Opus 4.8 ($5/$25 per million tokens). It became the default on Claude Max and strongest option on Pro, with effort modes (high, xhigh, max) enabling tunable performance. Recent late-August 2026 arena snapshots and leaderboards continue to show Opus 5 (Max) and (High) variants leading agent, coding, and frontend categories ahead of Fable 5, GPT-5.6 Sol, and others, with no major new frontier releases displacing it since launch. The 72.5% on claude-opus-5-max reflects trader consensus that its verified capability gains, efficiency, and availability will hold through the September 7 snapshot. The smaller shares on claude-opus-5-high and the older claude-opus-4-6-high capture scenarios where a specific effort setting or legacy model edges out on that date, while “Other” at 18.2% accounts for potential Fable 5 or competitor surges. No regulatory or competitive shifts in the past week have altered this positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updatedclaude-opus-5-max 73%
Other 18.1%
claude-opus-5-high 8%
claude-opus-4-6-high 1.7%
$16,855 Vol.
$16,855 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
claude-opus-5-max
73%
Other
18%
claude-opus-5-high
8%
claude-opus-4-6-high
2%
claude-opus-5-max 73%
Other 18.1%
claude-opus-5-high 8%
claude-opus-4-6-high 1.7%
$16,855 Vol.
$16,855 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
claude-opus-5-max
$6,363 Vol.
73%
Other
$4,316 Vol.
18%
claude-opus-5-high
$4,675 Vol.
8%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$1,501 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Claude Opus 5 variants dominate the implied probabilities because the July 24, 2026 release established new state-of-the-art results on key agentic and coding benchmarks while remaining the practical daily driver.**
Anthropic positioned Opus 5 as approaching Fable 5 frontier performance on tasks like Frontier-Bench (43.3% vs. lower for predecessors and competitors), ARC-AGI-3, CursorBench, and GDPval-AA at half the token price of Fable 5 and identical pricing to Opus 4.8 ($5/$25 per million tokens). It became the default on Claude Max and strongest option on Pro, with effort modes (high, xhigh, max) enabling tunable performance. Recent late-August 2026 arena snapshots and leaderboards continue to show Opus 5 (Max) and (High) variants leading agent, coding, and frontend categories ahead of Fable 5, GPT-5.6 Sol, and others, with no major new frontier releases displacing it since launch.
The 72.5% on claude-opus-5-max reflects trader consensus that its verified capability gains, efficiency, and availability will hold through the September 7 snapshot. The smaller shares on claude-opus-5-high and the older claude-opus-4-6-high capture scenarios where a specific effort setting or legacy model edges out on that date, while “Other” at 18.2% accounts for potential Fable 5 or competitor surges. No regulatory or competitive shifts in the past week have altered this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ET
Volume
$16,855End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Claude Opus 5 variants dominate the implied probabilities because the July 24, 2026 release established new state-of-the-art results on key agentic and coding benchmarks while remaining the practical daily driver.**
Anthropic positioned Opus 5 as approaching Fable 5 frontier performance on tasks like Frontier-Bench (43.3% vs. lower for predecessors and competitors), ARC-AGI-3, CursorBench, and GDPval-AA at half the token price of Fable 5 and identical pricing to Opus 4.8 ($5/$25 per million tokens). It became the default on Claude Max and strongest option on Pro, with effort modes (high, xhigh, max) enabling tunable performance. Recent late-August 2026 arena snapshots and leaderboards continue to show Opus 5 (Max) and (High) variants leading agent, coding, and frontend categories ahead of Fable 5, GPT-5.6 Sol, and others, with no major new frontier releases displacing it since launch.
The 72.5% on claude-opus-5-max reflects trader consensus that its verified capability gains, efficiency, and availability will hold through the September 7 snapshot. The smaller shares on claude-opus-5-high and the older claude-opus-4-6-high capture scenarios where a specific effort setting or legacy model edges out on that date, while “Other” at 18.2% accounts for potential Fable 5 or competitor surges. No regulatory or competitive shifts in the past week have altered this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$16,855End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Claude Opus 5 variants dominate the implied probabilities because the July 24, 2026 release established new state-of-the-art results on key agentic and coding benchmarks while remaining the practical daily driver.** Anthropic positioned Opus 5 as approaching Fable 5 frontier performance on tasks like Frontier-Bench (43.3% vs. lower for predecessors and competitors), ARC-AGI-3, CursorBench, and GDPval-AA at half the token price of Fable 5 and identical pricing to Opus 4.8 ($5/$25 per million tokens). It became the default on Claude Max and strongest option on Pro, with effort modes (high, xhigh, max) enabling tunable performance. Recent late-August 2026 arena snapshots and leaderboards continue to show Opus 5 (Max) and (High) variants leading agent, coding, and frontend categories ahead of Fable 5, GPT-5.6 Sol, and others, with no major new frontier releases displacing it since launch. The 72.5% on claude-opus-5-max reflects trader consensus that its verified capability gains, efficiency, and availability will hold through the September 7 snapshot. The smaller shares on claude-opus-5-high and the older claude-opus-4-6-high capture scenarios where a specific effort setting or legacy model edges out on that date, while “Other” at 18.2% accounts for potential Fable 5 or competitor surges. No regulatory or competitive shifts in the past week have altered this positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions