OpenAI’s latest model releases have driven annualized revenue above $40 billion, fueling investor interest in a potential pre-IPO private round at $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion—well above the $852 billion March 2026 mark. This momentum, alongside CEO Sam Altman’s emphasis on reaching at least $1 trillion before listing, underpins the 65.3% market-implied probability of a $1.5 trillion-plus closing market cap. The 17.1% odds of no IPO by December 31, 2027, reflect Altman’s September 2026 statements that safety and alignment priorities make a 2026 debut ill-advised, with a 2027 timeline now the baseline. Recent tender offers and confidential S-1 filing confirm preparation, yet timing hinges on regulatory and market conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1.5T+ 65.3%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 17.1%
1.25T–1.5T 11%
1T–1.25T 4.0%
$336,299 Vol.
$336,299 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
1%
500–750B
1%
750B–1T
2%
1T–1.25T
4%
1.25T–1.5T
11%
1.5T+
65%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
17%
1.5T+ 65.3%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 17.1%
1.25T–1.5T 11%
1T–1.25T 4.0%
$336,299 Vol.
$336,299 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$28,835 Vol.
1%
500–750B
$26,553 Vol.
1%
750B–1T
$64,628 Vol.
2%
1T–1.25T
$39,514 Vol.
4%
1.25T–1.5T
$29,184 Vol.
11%
1.5T+
$75,196 Vol.
65%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$72,389 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s latest model releases have driven annualized revenue above $40 billion, fueling investor interest in a potential pre-IPO private round at $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion—well above the $852 billion March 2026 mark. This momentum, alongside CEO Sam Altman’s emphasis on reaching at least $1 trillion before listing, underpins the 65.3% market-implied probability of a $1.5 trillion-plus closing market cap. The 17.1% odds of no IPO by December 31, 2027, reflect Altman’s September 2026 statements that safety and alignment priorities make a 2026 debut ill-advised, with a 2027 timeline now the baseline. Recent tender offers and confidential S-1 filing confirm preparation, yet timing hinges on regulatory and market conditions.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$336,299End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s latest model releases have driven annualized revenue above $40 billion, fueling investor interest in a potential pre-IPO private round at $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion—well above the $852 billion March 2026 mark. This momentum, alongside CEO Sam Altman’s emphasis on reaching at least $1 trillion before listing, underpins the 65.3% market-implied probability of a $1.5 trillion-plus closing market cap. The 17.1% odds of no IPO by December 31, 2027, reflect Altman’s September 2026 statements that safety and alignment priorities make a 2026 debut ill-advised, with a 2027 timeline now the baseline. Recent tender offers and confidential S-1 filing confirm preparation, yet timing hinges on regulatory and market conditions.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$336,299End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s latest model releases have driven annualized revenue above $40 billion, fueling investor interest in a potential pre-IPO private round at $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion—well above the $852 billion March 2026 mark. This momentum, alongside CEO Sam Altman’s emphasis on reaching at least $1 trillion before listing, underpins the 65.3% market-implied probability of a $1.5 trillion-plus closing market cap. The 17.1% odds of no IPO by December 31, 2027, reflect Altman’s September 2026 statements that safety and alignment priorities make a 2026 debut ill-advised, with a 2027 timeline now the baseline. Recent tender offers and confidential S-1 filing confirm preparation, yet timing hinges on regulatory and market conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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