Anthropic’s next Mythos-class large language model faces strong trader expectations for an early September 2026 release, driven by the lab’s June 9 launch of the safeguarded public Fable 5 and restricted Mythos 5, which reset the typical 3–5 month frontier-model cadence. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and xAI’s July Grok 4.5 Opus-class release, combined with high benchmark gains in coding and agentic tasks, pushes Anthropic to accelerate. Regulatory scrutiny over cybersecurity capabilities and government coordination on Project Glasswing access remain key swing factors, while no major new announcements or leaks have surfaced since late June. Markets price roughly 70 percent odds on September 1 and cluster remaining probability in the first half of the month, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on imminent developer availability before broader safety reviews delay rollout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNext Mythos-Class Model released by…?
Next Mythos-Class Model released by…?
$795,825 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
August 31
5%
September 1
45%
September 2
55%
September 4
76%
September 7
77%
September 9
82%
September 15
84%
September 30
91%
October 31
96%
$795,825 Vol.
August 31
$332,528 Vol.
5%
September 1
$38,241 Vol.
45%
September 2
$22,151 Vol.
55%
September 4
$17,345 Vol.
76%
September 7
$13,062 Vol.
77%
September 9
$86,337 Vol.
82%
September 15
$47,270 Vol.
84%
September 30
$164,435 Vol.
91%
October 31
$32,382 Vol.
96%
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Anthropic’s next Mythos-class large language model faces strong trader expectations for an early September 2026 release, driven by the lab’s June 9 launch of the safeguarded public Fable 5 and restricted Mythos 5, which reset the typical 3–5 month frontier-model cadence. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and xAI’s July Grok 4.5 Opus-class release, combined with high benchmark gains in coding and agentic tasks, pushes Anthropic to accelerate. Regulatory scrutiny over cybersecurity capabilities and government coordination on Project Glasswing access remain key swing factors, while no major new announcements or leaks have surfaced since late June. Markets price roughly 70 percent odds on September 1 and cluster remaining probability in the first half of the month, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on imminent developer availability before broader safety reviews delay rollout.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 9:37 AM ET
Volume
$795,825End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Anthropic’s next Mythos-class large language model faces strong trader expectations for an early September 2026 release, driven by the lab’s June 9 launch of the safeguarded public Fable 5 and restricted Mythos 5, which reset the typical 3–5 month frontier-model cadence. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and xAI’s July Grok 4.5 Opus-class release, combined with high benchmark gains in coding and agentic tasks, pushes Anthropic to accelerate. Regulatory scrutiny over cybersecurity capabilities and government coordination on Project Glasswing access remain key swing factors, while no major new announcements or leaks have surfaced since late June. Markets price roughly 70 percent odds on September 1 and cluster remaining probability in the first half of the month, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on imminent developer availability before broader safety reviews delay rollout.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$795,825End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s next Mythos-class large language model faces strong trader expectations for an early September 2026 release, driven by the lab’s June 9 launch of the safeguarded public Fable 5 and restricted Mythos 5, which reset the typical 3–5 month frontier-model cadence. Competitive pressure from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family and xAI’s July Grok 4.5 Opus-class release, combined with high benchmark gains in coding and agentic tasks, pushes Anthropic to accelerate. Regulatory scrutiny over cybersecurity capabilities and government coordination on Project Glasswing access remain key swing factors, while no major new announcements or leaks have surfaced since late June. Markets price roughly 70 percent odds on September 1 and cluster remaining probability in the first half of the month, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on imminent developer availability before broader safety reviews delay rollout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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