Cait Conley secured the Democratic nomination in June 2026 for New York’s 17th Congressional District after defeating several rivals in the primary, establishing her as the general election challenger to incumbent Republican Mike Lawler. The Hudson Valley seat ranks as a toss-up per nonpartisan ratings, with the district narrowly favoring Kamala Harris in 2024 while Lawler won re-election that cycle by a wider margin. Conley, a West Point graduate and Army combat veteran with national security and cybersecurity experience, benefits from a substantial Democratic registration edge and national party support. Lawler maintains a fundraising lead and a record of winning competitive races, though the race’s positioning reflects trader assessments of a closely contested midterm environment ahead of the November 3 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$14,813 Vol.
$14,813 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Cait Conley (D)
59%
Mike Lawler (R)
41%
$14,813 Vol.
$14,813 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Cait Conley (D)
$6,165 Vol.
59%
Mike Lawler (R)
$8,648 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cait Conley secured the Democratic nomination in June 2026 for New York’s 17th Congressional District after defeating several rivals in the primary, establishing her as the general election challenger to incumbent Republican Mike Lawler. The Hudson Valley seat ranks as a toss-up per nonpartisan ratings, with the district narrowly favoring Kamala Harris in 2024 while Lawler won re-election that cycle by a wider margin. Conley, a West Point graduate and Army combat veteran with national security and cybersecurity experience, benefits from a substantial Democratic registration edge and national party support. Lawler maintains a fundraising lead and a record of winning competitive races, though the race’s positioning reflects trader assessments of a closely contested midterm environment ahead of the November 3 vote.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$14,813End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cait Conley secured the Democratic nomination in June 2026 for New York’s 17th Congressional District after defeating several rivals in the primary, establishing her as the general election challenger to incumbent Republican Mike Lawler. The Hudson Valley seat ranks as a toss-up per nonpartisan ratings, with the district narrowly favoring Kamala Harris in 2024 while Lawler won re-election that cycle by a wider margin. Conley, a West Point graduate and Army combat veteran with national security and cybersecurity experience, benefits from a substantial Democratic registration edge and national party support. Lawler maintains a fundraising lead and a record of winning competitive races, though the race’s positioning reflects trader assessments of a closely contested midterm environment ahead of the November 3 vote.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$14,813End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Cait Conley secured the Democratic nomination in June 2026 for New York’s 17th Congressional District after defeating several rivals in the primary, establishing her as the general election challenger to incumbent Republican Mike Lawler. The Hudson Valley seat ranks as a toss-up per nonpartisan ratings, with the district narrowly favoring Kamala Harris in 2024 while Lawler won re-election that cycle by a wider margin. Conley, a West Point graduate and Army combat veteran with national security and cybersecurity experience, benefits from a substantial Democratic registration edge and national party support. Lawler maintains a fundraising lead and a record of winning competitive races, though the race’s positioning reflects trader assessments of a closely contested midterm environment ahead of the November 3 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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