Josh Riley holds a commanding lead in the NY-19 House race as the Democratic incumbent, backed by the district’s modest Democratic lean, his narrow 2024 victory margin, and a substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $4.8 million compared to Peter Oberacker’s roughly $1.2 million. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as Lean or Likely Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Oberacker secured the Republican nomination in June after a strong primary performance but faces headwinds from the district’s recent leftward shift and Riley’s established local profile. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, though shifts in national conditions, turnout patterns, or late-cycle developments could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$21,045 Vol.
$21,045 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Josh Riley (D)
94%
Peter Oberacker (R)
5%
$21,045 Vol.
$21,045 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Josh Riley (D)
$10,202 Vol.
94%
Peter Oberacker (R)
$10,843 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Josh Riley holds a commanding lead in the NY-19 House race as the Democratic incumbent, backed by the district’s modest Democratic lean, his narrow 2024 victory margin, and a substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $4.8 million compared to Peter Oberacker’s roughly $1.2 million. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as Lean or Likely Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Oberacker secured the Republican nomination in June after a strong primary performance but faces headwinds from the district’s recent leftward shift and Riley’s established local profile. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, though shifts in national conditions, turnout patterns, or late-cycle developments could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$21,045End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Josh Riley holds a commanding lead in the NY-19 House race as the Democratic incumbent, backed by the district’s modest Democratic lean, his narrow 2024 victory margin, and a substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $4.8 million compared to Peter Oberacker’s roughly $1.2 million. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as Lean or Likely Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Oberacker secured the Republican nomination in June after a strong primary performance but faces headwinds from the district’s recent leftward shift and Riley’s established local profile. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, though shifts in national conditions, turnout patterns, or late-cycle developments could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,045End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Josh Riley holds a commanding lead in the NY-19 House race as the Democratic incumbent, backed by the district’s modest Democratic lean, his narrow 2024 victory margin, and a substantial fundraising advantage exceeding $4.8 million compared to Peter Oberacker’s roughly $1.2 million. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as Lean or Likely Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Oberacker secured the Republican nomination in June after a strong primary performance but faces headwinds from the district’s recent leftward shift and Riley’s established local profile. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, though shifts in national conditions, turnout patterns, or late-cycle developments could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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