Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office

"Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office

icon for "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office

"Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office

Sep 20

"Primetime"

"Forgotten Island"

"Heart of the Beast"

Sep 20

"Primetime"

"Forgotten Island"

"Heart of the Beast"

10-13m 26%

19-22m 20%

16-19m 18%

13-16m 14%

Polymarket
NEW

10-13m 26%

19-22m 20%

16-19m 18%

13-16m 14%

Polymarket
NEW

<10m

$125 Vol.

8%

10-13m

$15 Vol.

26%

13-16m

$133 Vol.

21%

16-19m

$0 Vol.

18%

19-22m

$0 Vol.

20%

22m+

$0 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve according to how much "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 25 - 27) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**A24’s “Primetime,” starring Robert Pattinson as Chris Hansen in a psychological thriller inspired by “To Catch a Predator,” is tracking for a modest $10–15 million domestic opening on its September 25 wide release.** Trader sentiment reflects the film’s niche true-crime premise, A24’s typical mid-tier performance for star-driven dramas, and direct competition from Brad Pitt’s “Heart of the Beast” and DreamWorks’ “Forgotten Island” on the same date. Venice premiere buzz offers potential upside, yet historical comps like “Nightcrawler” and recent A24 openings support the market’s emphasis on the 10–16 million range. Final tracking updates, early reviews, and presale velocity ahead of the holiday-adjacent weekend will be key swing factors.

This market will resolve according to how much "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 25 - 27) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by October 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.This market will resolve according to how much "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 25 - 27) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$273
End Date
Sep 27, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to how much "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 25 - 27) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**A24’s “Primetime,” starring Robert Pattinson as Chris Hansen in a psychological thriller inspired by “To Catch a Predator,” is tracking for a modest $10–15 million domestic opening on its September 25 wide release.** Trader sentiment reflects the film’s niche true-crime premise, A24’s typical mid-tier performance for star-driven dramas, and direct competition from Brad Pitt’s “Heart of the Beast” and DreamWorks’ “Forgotten Island” on the same date. Venice premiere buzz offers potential upside, yet historical comps like “Nightcrawler” and recent A24 openings support the market’s emphasis on the 10–16 million range. Final tracking updates, early reviews, and presale velocity ahead of the holiday-adjacent weekend will be key swing factors.

This market will resolve according to how much "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 25 - 27) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.

If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.

If there is no final data available by October 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.This market will resolve according to how much "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (September 25 - 27) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$273
End Date
Sep 27, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:20 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Related

icon for Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?

Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?

38%
icon for Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 17m?

Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 14m and 17m?

29%
icon for Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

95%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

""Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "10-13m" at 26%, followed by "13-16m" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 26¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

""Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 15, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on ""Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for ""Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office" is "10-13m" at 26%, meaning the market assigns a 26% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "13-16m" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for ""Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.