SpaceX has demonstrated repeated Super Heavy booster catches with the launch tower in 2026 flights, validating rapid booster recovery infrastructure, yet the Starship upper stage has only achieved controlled ocean splashdowns, including an intact heat shield return on Flight 13. This leaves the critical tower catch for the orbital-class upper stage unproven, requiring precise reentry, belly-flop maneuvering, and arm engagement under higher thermal loads than the booster. With Flight 14 targeting the first orbital attempt around September 22 carrying production Starlink V3 satellites, and remaining 2026 test cadence constrained by FAA licensing, traders see insufficient time for both stages to complete a full reuse cycle before year-end. Upcoming ship catch attempts represent the key swing factor.