Olivia Rodrigo’s “the cure” holds the clearest edge in the Best Alternative race at 41.5% implied probability, driven by her massive fanbase, crossover appeal from the goth-tinged single off her latest album, and high-visibility moments like the Grammy Museum exhibit and collaborations with Robert Smith. Fan voting, which closes September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony, favors established artists with broad engagement. Twenty One Pilots’ “Drag Path” sits at 18.5% on the strength of its Alternative Airplay No. 1 run and dedicated following, while Noah Kahan and Sombr hover near 15% each on solid but narrower support. Lower odds for Tame Impala, MGK & Fred Durst, and Geese reflect smaller voter mobilization in this tight, late-stage contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVMA Best Alternative 2026
VMA Best Alternative 2026
The Cure (Olivia Rodrigo) 42%
Drag Path (Twenty One Pilots) 19%
The Great Divide (Noah Kahan) 16%
Homewrecker (Sombr) 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 27, 2026
The Cure (Olivia Rodrigo)
42%
Drag Path (Twenty One Pilots)
19%
The Great Divide (Noah Kahan)
16%
Homewrecker (Sombr)
15%
Fix Ur Face (MGK and Fred Durst)
9%
Dracula (Tame Impala)
5%
Taxes (Geese)
5%
The Cure (Olivia Rodrigo) 42%
Drag Path (Twenty One Pilots) 19%
The Great Divide (Noah Kahan) 16%
Homewrecker (Sombr) 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 27, 2026
The Cure (Olivia Rodrigo)
$907 Vol.
42%
Drag Path (Twenty One Pilots)
$170 Vol.
19%
The Great Divide (Noah Kahan)
$58 Vol.
16%
Homewrecker (Sombr)
$61 Vol.
15%
Fix Ur Face (MGK and Fred Durst)
$372 Vol.
9%
Dracula (Tame Impala)
$21 Vol.
5%
Taxes (Geese)
$138 Vol.
5%
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Alternative.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Alternative when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Olivia Rodrigo’s “the cure” holds the clearest edge in the Best Alternative race at 41.5% implied probability, driven by her massive fanbase, crossover appeal from the goth-tinged single off her latest album, and high-visibility moments like the Grammy Museum exhibit and collaborations with Robert Smith. Fan voting, which closes September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony, favors established artists with broad engagement. Twenty One Pilots’ “Drag Path” sits at 18.5% on the strength of its Alternative Airplay No. 1 run and dedicated following, while Noah Kahan and Sombr hover near 15% each on solid but narrower support. Lower odds for Tame Impala, MGK & Fred Durst, and Geese reflect smaller voter mobilization in this tight, late-stage contest.
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Alternative.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Alternative when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Alternative.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Alternative when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 5:56 PM ET
Volume
$1,727End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Alternative.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Alternative when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Olivia Rodrigo’s “the cure” holds the clearest edge in the Best Alternative race at 41.5% implied probability, driven by her massive fanbase, crossover appeal from the goth-tinged single off her latest album, and high-visibility moments like the Grammy Museum exhibit and collaborations with Robert Smith. Fan voting, which closes September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony, favors established artists with broad engagement. Twenty One Pilots’ “Drag Path” sits at 18.5% on the strength of its Alternative Airplay No. 1 run and dedicated following, while Noah Kahan and Sombr hover near 15% each on solid but narrower support. Lower odds for Tame Impala, MGK & Fred Durst, and Geese reflect smaller voter mobilization in this tight, late-stage contest.
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Alternative.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Alternative when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Best Alternative.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Best Alternative when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,727End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Olivia Rodrigo’s “the cure” holds the clearest edge in the Best Alternative race at 41.5% implied probability, driven by her massive fanbase, crossover appeal from the goth-tinged single off her latest album, and high-visibility moments like the Grammy Museum exhibit and collaborations with Robert Smith. Fan voting, which closes September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony, favors established artists with broad engagement. Twenty One Pilots’ “Drag Path” sits at 18.5% on the strength of its Alternative Airplay No. 1 run and dedicated following, while Noah Kahan and Sombr hover near 15% each on solid but narrower support. Lower odds for Tame Impala, MGK & Fred Durst, and Geese reflect smaller voter mobilization in this tight, late-stage contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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