BTS’s “Swim” leads trader consensus at 61.5% implied probability, buoyed by its No. 1 Billboard Hot 100 debut, sustained global streaming dominance, and the group’s proven VMA fan-voting edge from prior wins. The track’s strong precursor momentum, including recent international chart placements and ARMY mobilization ahead of the Sept. 27 ceremony, has widened its lead over the field. Huntrix’s “Golden” sits at 24.4% on solid soundtrack buzz, while Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas” and the Madonna–Sabrina Carpenter collaboration trail further behind on country and pop crossover appeal. Fan voting closes Sept. 25, making organized fandom activity the decisive near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVMA Song of the Year 2026
VMA Song of the Year 2026
Swim (BTS) 62%
Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley) 21%
Bring Your Love (Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter) 16%
Golden (Huntrix) 4.2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 27, 2026
Swim (BTS)
62%
Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley)
21%
Bring Your Love (Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter)
16%
Golden (Huntrix)
4%
Man I Need (Olivia Dean)
4%
Where Is My Husband! (Raye)
4%
Stateside + Zara Larsson (PinkPantheress)
4%
Swim (BTS) 62%
Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley) 21%
Bring Your Love (Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter) 16%
Golden (Huntrix) 4.2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 27, 2026
Swim (BTS)
$566 Vol.
62%
Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley)
$184 Vol.
21%
Bring Your Love (Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter)
$424 Vol.
16%
Golden (Huntrix)
$1 Vol.
4%
Man I Need (Olivia Dean)
$1 Vol.
4%
Where Is My Husband! (Raye)
$1 Vol.
4%
Stateside + Zara Larsson (PinkPantheress)
$1 Vol.
4%
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed song that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year.
If a song was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated song whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.BTS’s “Swim” leads trader consensus at 61.5% implied probability, buoyed by its No. 1 Billboard Hot 100 debut, sustained global streaming dominance, and the group’s proven VMA fan-voting edge from prior wins. The track’s strong precursor momentum, including recent international chart placements and ARMY mobilization ahead of the Sept. 27 ceremony, has widened its lead over the field. Huntrix’s “Golden” sits at 24.4% on solid soundtrack buzz, while Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas” and the Madonna–Sabrina Carpenter collaboration trail further behind on country and pop crossover appeal. Fan voting closes Sept. 25, making organized fandom activity the decisive near-term catalyst.
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed song that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year.
If a song was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated song whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed song that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year.
If a song was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated song whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$1,178End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed song that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year.
If a song was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated song whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.BTS’s “Swim” leads trader consensus at 61.5% implied probability, buoyed by its No. 1 Billboard Hot 100 debut, sustained global streaming dominance, and the group’s proven VMA fan-voting edge from prior wins. The track’s strong precursor momentum, including recent international chart placements and ARMY mobilization ahead of the Sept. 27 ceremony, has widened its lead over the field. Huntrix’s “Golden” sits at 24.4% on solid soundtrack buzz, while Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas” and the Madonna–Sabrina Carpenter collaboration trail further behind on country and pop crossover appeal. Fan voting closes Sept. 25, making organized fandom activity the decisive near-term catalyst.
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed song that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year.
If a song was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated song whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed song that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year.
If a song was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated song whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,178End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...BTS’s “Swim” leads trader consensus at 61.5% implied probability, buoyed by its No. 1 Billboard Hot 100 debut, sustained global streaming dominance, and the group’s proven VMA fan-voting edge from prior wins. The track’s strong precursor momentum, including recent international chart placements and ARMY mobilization ahead of the Sept. 27 ceremony, has widened its lead over the field. Huntrix’s “Golden” sits at 24.4% on solid soundtrack buzz, while Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas” and the Madonna–Sabrina Carpenter collaboration trail further behind on country and pop crossover appeal. Fan voting closes Sept. 25, making organized fandom activity the decisive near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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