Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole have driven the primary catalyst, with markets now pricing a roughly 57% probability of a September rate hike amid July PCE inflation at 3.7%. Gold prices have corrected from August highs near $4,700 to around $4,430–$4,460 per ounce as higher real yields and a firmer dollar increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, combined with expectations for tighter monetary policy, has capped gains despite central bank buying and fiscal concerns. The September FOMC decision and upcoming inflation releases will likely determine near-term price action in XAU/USD.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 30, 2026
↑ $5,300
6%
↑ $5,200
7%
↑ $5,100
6%
↑ $5,000
7%
↑ $4,900
14%
↑ $4,800
26%
↑ $4,700
42%
↓ $4,600
99%
↓ $4,500
-
↓ $4,400
86%
↓ $4,300
57%
↓ $4,200
34%
↓ $4,100
17%
↓ $4,000
7%
↓ $3,900
6%
$5,543 Vol.
↑ $5,300
$1,232 Vol.
6%
↑ $5,200
$128 Vol.
7%
↑ $5,100
$111 Vol.
6%
↑ $5,000
$0 Vol.
7%
↑ $4,900
$103 Vol.
14%
↑ $4,800
$93 Vol.
26%
↑ $4,700
$168 Vol.
42%
↓ $4,600
$1,918 Vol.
99%
↓ $4,500
$144 Vol.
-
↓ $4,400
$0 Vol.
86%
↓ $4,300
$20 Vol.
57%
↓ $4,200
$0 Vol.
34%
↓ $4,100
$627 Vol.
17%
↓ $4,000
$1,000 Vol.
7%
↓ $3,900
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of September 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole have driven the primary catalyst, with markets now pricing a roughly 57% probability of a September rate hike amid July PCE inflation at 3.7%. Gold prices have corrected from August highs near $4,700 to around $4,430–$4,460 per ounce as higher real yields and a firmer dollar increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, combined with expectations for tighter monetary policy, has capped gains despite central bank buying and fiscal concerns. The September FOMC decision and upcoming inflation releases will likely determine near-term price action in XAU/USD.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of September 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Volume
$5,543End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSDResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of September 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole have driven the primary catalyst, with markets now pricing a roughly 57% probability of a September rate hike amid July PCE inflation at 3.7%. Gold prices have corrected from August highs near $4,700 to around $4,430–$4,460 per ounce as higher real yields and a firmer dollar increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, combined with expectations for tighter monetary policy, has capped gains despite central bank buying and fiscal concerns. The September FOMC decision and upcoming inflation releases will likely determine near-term price action in XAU/USD.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of September 2026, any 1-minute candle for Gold (XAUUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Gold (XAUUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Gold Futures (GC)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Volume
$5,543End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolution Source
https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSDResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole have driven the primary catalyst, with markets now pricing a roughly 57% probability of a September rate hike amid July PCE inflation at 3.7%. Gold prices have corrected from August highs near $4,700 to around $4,430–$4,460 per ounce as higher real yields and a firmer dollar increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, combined with expectations for tighter monetary policy, has capped gains despite central bank buying and fiscal concerns. The September FOMC decision and upcoming inflation releases will likely determine near-term price action in XAU/USD.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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