Recent global seismicity shows 12 magnitude 6.0+ events through late August 2026, consistent with typical monthly rates of roughly 10-15, concentrated along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire and Indonesian arcs per USGS catalogs. Primary drivers for market positioning include the August 14 M7.7 Flores Sea event and its aftershocks, plus the August 10 M7.4 Colombia quake, which elevated probabilities for ongoing activity in those regions while quiet conditions prevailed in California and Alaska during the final week. USGS real-time data through August 31 report no new M6+ events, with activity limited to smaller tremors below magnitude 5.0. Key resolution factors hinge on precise epicenter locations and magnitude thresholds measured by official networks, with final updates from monitoring agencies possible before month-end close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhere will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?
Where will a 6.0+ earthquake occur by end of August?
$25,648 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
Peru
100%
Japan
100%
Indonesia
99%
United States
19%
Mexico
5%
Chile
50%
Philippines
30%
$25,648 Vol.
Peru
$2,783 Vol.
100%
Japan
$11,147 Vol.
100%
Indonesia
$6,582 Vol.
99%
United States
$1,676 Vol.
19%
Mexico
$493 Vol.
5%
Chile
$144 Vol.
50%
Philippines
$2,824 Vol.
30%
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."Recent global seismicity shows 12 magnitude 6.0+ events through late August 2026, consistent with typical monthly rates of roughly 10-15, concentrated along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire and Indonesian arcs per USGS catalogs. Primary drivers for market positioning include the August 14 M7.7 Flores Sea event and its aftershocks, plus the August 10 M7.4 Colombia quake, which elevated probabilities for ongoing activity in those regions while quiet conditions prevailed in California and Alaska during the final week. USGS real-time data through August 31 report no new M6+ events, with activity limited to smaller tremors below magnitude 5.0. Key resolution factors hinge on precise epicenter locations and magnitude thresholds measured by official networks, with final updates from monitoring agencies possible before month-end close.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$25,648End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."Recent global seismicity shows 12 magnitude 6.0+ events through late August 2026, consistent with typical monthly rates of roughly 10-15, concentrated along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire and Indonesian arcs per USGS catalogs. Primary drivers for market positioning include the August 14 M7.7 Flores Sea event and its aftershocks, plus the August 10 M7.4 Colombia quake, which elevated probabilities for ongoing activity in those regions while quiet conditions prevailed in California and Alaska during the final week. USGS real-time data through August 31 report no new M6+ events, with activity limited to smaller tremors below magnitude 5.0. Key resolution factors hinge on precise epicenter locations and magnitude thresholds measured by official networks, with final updates from monitoring agencies possible before month-end close.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between market creation and the end of the listed month (UTC), by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month (UTC). Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country (or its offshore territory) in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within a market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after the specified month and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as country attribution and preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after the specified month or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after the specified month, this market will resolve to "No."
Volume
$25,648End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent global seismicity shows 12 magnitude 6.0+ events through late August 2026, consistent with typical monthly rates of roughly 10-15, concentrated along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire and Indonesian arcs per USGS catalogs. Primary drivers for market positioning include the August 14 M7.7 Flores Sea event and its aftershocks, plus the August 10 M7.4 Colombia quake, which elevated probabilities for ongoing activity in those regions while quiet conditions prevailed in California and Alaska during the final week. USGS real-time data through August 31 report no new M6+ events, with activity limited to smaller tremors below magnitude 5.0. Key resolution factors hinge on precise epicenter locations and magnitude thresholds measured by official networks, with final updates from monitoring agencies possible before month-end close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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