Apple is actively testing CXMT DRAM chips for iPhones and MacBooks aimed at the China market while lobbying the Trump administration for assurances against further restrictions, driven by a severe global memory shortage that has pushed conventional DRAM prices sharply higher amid AI-driven demand. CXMT, China’s leading DRAM producer with roughly 8% global share, operates at near-full capacity through 2027 and prioritizes domestic clients such as Tencent and Xiaomi, leaving limited room for new international volume. The Pentagon’s 1260H blacklist over alleged PLA ties, combined with congressional opposition and risks of Entity List placement, creates substantial regulatory and reputational barriers. These dynamics sustain trader consensus favoring no purchases in 2026 despite ongoing qualification efforts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated41% chance
$18,452 Vol.
$18,452 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
41% chance
$18,452 Vol.
$18,452 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple is actively testing CXMT DRAM chips for iPhones and MacBooks aimed at the China market while lobbying the Trump administration for assurances against further restrictions, driven by a severe global memory shortage that has pushed conventional DRAM prices sharply higher amid AI-driven demand. CXMT, China’s leading DRAM producer with roughly 8% global share, operates at near-full capacity through 2027 and prioritizes domestic clients such as Tencent and Xiaomi, leaving limited room for new international volume. The Pentagon’s 1260H blacklist over alleged PLA ties, combined with congressional opposition and risks of Entity List placement, creates substantial regulatory and reputational barriers. These dynamics sustain trader consensus favoring no purchases in 2026 despite ongoing qualification efforts.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volume
$18,452End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple is actively testing CXMT DRAM chips for iPhones and MacBooks aimed at the China market while lobbying the Trump administration for assurances against further restrictions, driven by a severe global memory shortage that has pushed conventional DRAM prices sharply higher amid AI-driven demand. CXMT, China’s leading DRAM producer with roughly 8% global share, operates at near-full capacity through 2027 and prioritizes domestic clients such as Tencent and Xiaomi, leaving limited room for new international volume. The Pentagon’s 1260H blacklist over alleged PLA ties, combined with congressional opposition and risks of Entity List placement, creates substantial regulatory and reputational barriers. These dynamics sustain trader consensus favoring no purchases in 2026 despite ongoing qualification efforts.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$18,452End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple is actively testing CXMT DRAM chips for iPhones and MacBooks aimed at the China market while lobbying the Trump administration for assurances against further restrictions, driven by a severe global memory shortage that has pushed conventional DRAM prices sharply higher amid AI-driven demand. CXMT, China’s leading DRAM producer with roughly 8% global share, operates at near-full capacity through 2027 and prioritizes domestic clients such as Tencent and Xiaomi, leaving limited room for new international volume. The Pentagon’s 1260H blacklist over alleged PLA ties, combined with congressional opposition and risks of Entity List placement, creates substantial regulatory and reputational barriers. These dynamics sustain trader consensus favoring no purchases in 2026 despite ongoing qualification efforts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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