Traders see little chance of an OpenAI acquisition before 2027, reflected in the 95.9% market-implied probability for “No.” OpenAI’s hybrid nonprofit-for-profit structure, leadership focus on independence under Sam Altman, and dominant position in large language model development reduce near-term sale incentives. With roughly four months remaining, the compressed timeline further limits realistic pathways, as major corporate transactions typically require extended negotiations, regulatory review, and board approvals. While an abrupt shift in AI policy, unexpected capital needs, or a surprise strategic partnership could theoretically intervene, current verified developments point to sustained autonomy rather than ownership change.