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icon for Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?
Tech·AI

Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?

icon for Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?
Tech·AI

Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?

NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$7,886 Vol.

Polymarket

December 31, 2026

$4,226 Vol.

8%

December 31, 2027

$1,749 Vol.

19%

December 31, 2028

$1,911 Vol.

45%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, or otherwise officially declares the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET of the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.OpenAI's September 8, 2026 announcement that an internal AI system generated a Lean-verified proof of finite-time singularity in the forced Navier-Stokes equations has sharply raised trader expectations for a Clay Mathematics Institute declaration. The result targets statement C in the official Millennium Prize formulation, establishing that smooth initial data can develop a blowup while preserving finite energy. However, the market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether the forced variant fully satisfies CMI criteria, ongoing scrutiny of the proof's applicability to the unforced problem, and the institute's deliberately unhurried verification process. Parallel human-AI work on related Euler and Boussinesq equations by researchers at NYU and Anthropic adds competitive context but falls short of full resolution. CMI statements emphasize rigorous, independent review without a firm timeline, leaving room for delays or rejection if gaps emerge.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, or otherwise officially declares the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET of the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered.

A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, or otherwise officially declares the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET of the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.
Volume
$7,886
End Date
Jan 1, 2029
Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, or otherwise officially declares the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET of the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.OpenAI's September 8, 2026 announcement that an internal AI system generated a Lean-verified proof of finite-time singularity in the forced Navier-Stokes equations has sharply raised trader expectations for a Clay Mathematics Institute declaration. The result targets statement C in the official Millennium Prize formulation, establishing that smooth initial data can develop a blowup while preserving finite energy. However, the market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over whether the forced variant fully satisfies CMI criteria, ongoing scrutiny of the proof's applicability to the unforced problem, and the institute's deliberately unhurried verification process. Parallel human-AI work on related Euler and Boussinesq equations by researchers at NYU and Anthropic adds competitive context but falls short of full resolution. CMI statements emphasize rigorous, independent review without a firm timeline, leaving room for delays or rejection if gaps emerge.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, or otherwise officially declares the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET of the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered.

A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, or otherwise officially declares the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET of the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.
Volume
$7,886
End Date
Jan 1, 2029
Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 12:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "December 31, 2028" at 45%, followed by "December 31, 2027" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?" is "December 31, 2028" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "December 31, 2027" at 19%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.