Incumbent Rick Crawford's commanding position in Arkansas's 1st congressional district stems from its entrenched Republican lean, reflected in his 2024 reelection with nearly 73 percent of the vote and consistent "Safe Republican" or "Solid Republican" ratings from major forecasters. The district's rural, agricultural character in northeast Arkansas has produced large GOP margins historically, reinforced by Crawford's long tenure since 2011, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $900,000, and uncontested Republican primary earlier in 2026. Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist and political newcomer, faces structural barriers including limited campaign resources and weak party infrastructure. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with base-rate expectations for such districts, though late-cycle national shifts, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals could still narrow the outcome before the November general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAR-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
AR-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$26,840 Vol.
$26,840 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Rick Crawford (R)
98%
Terri Green (D)
1%
$26,840 Vol.
$26,840 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Rick Crawford (R)
$16,491 Vol.
98%
Terri Green (D)
$10,349 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rick Crawford's commanding position in Arkansas's 1st congressional district stems from its entrenched Republican lean, reflected in his 2024 reelection with nearly 73 percent of the vote and consistent "Safe Republican" or "Solid Republican" ratings from major forecasters. The district's rural, agricultural character in northeast Arkansas has produced large GOP margins historically, reinforced by Crawford's long tenure since 2011, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $900,000, and uncontested Republican primary earlier in 2026. Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist and political newcomer, faces structural barriers including limited campaign resources and weak party infrastructure. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with base-rate expectations for such districts, though late-cycle national shifts, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals could still narrow the outcome before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$26,840Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rick Crawford's commanding position in Arkansas's 1st congressional district stems from its entrenched Republican lean, reflected in his 2024 reelection with nearly 73 percent of the vote and consistent "Safe Republican" or "Solid Republican" ratings from major forecasters. The district's rural, agricultural character in northeast Arkansas has produced large GOP margins historically, reinforced by Crawford's long tenure since 2011, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $900,000, and uncontested Republican primary earlier in 2026. Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist and political newcomer, faces structural barriers including limited campaign resources and weak party infrastructure. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with base-rate expectations for such districts, though late-cycle national shifts, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals could still narrow the outcome before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,840Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rick Crawford's commanding position in Arkansas's 1st congressional district stems from its entrenched Republican lean, reflected in his 2024 reelection with nearly 73 percent of the vote and consistent "Safe Republican" or "Solid Republican" ratings from major forecasters. The district's rural, agricultural character in northeast Arkansas has produced large GOP margins historically, reinforced by Crawford's long tenure since 2011, substantial fundraising edge exceeding $900,000, and uncontested Republican primary earlier in 2026. Democratic challenger Terri Yarbrough Green, a retired pathologist and political newcomer, faces structural barriers including limited campaign resources and weak party infrastructure. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with base-rate expectations for such districts, though late-cycle national shifts, candidate health events, or unforeseen scandals could still narrow the outcome before the November general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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