Incumbent Republican French Hill holds a strong position in Arkansas’s 2nd District for the November 2026 general election, supported by the district’s Republican lean—evidenced by Donald Trump’s 8.5-point margin there in 2024—and his established record across six prior victories. Hill secured his party nomination comfortably in the March primary and benefits from seniority as chair of the House Financial Services Committee. Democrat Chris Jones, a nuclear engineer and 2022 gubernatorial nominee, advanced easily in his primary and has highlighted recent internal polling showing a statistical tie or narrow lead, prompting the DCCC to designate the seat “in play.” Most nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican, citing structural advantages that outweigh periodic survey fluctuations and Democratic messaging on economic issues. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals while assigning Jones a modest but real chance tied to turnout dynamics and any late national shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAR-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
AR-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$14,903 Vol.
$14,903 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
French Hill (R)
81%
Chris Jones (D)
17%
$14,903 Vol.
$14,903 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
French Hill (R)
$4,885 Vol.
81%
Chris Jones (D)
$10,018 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill holds a strong position in Arkansas’s 2nd District for the November 2026 general election, supported by the district’s Republican lean—evidenced by Donald Trump’s 8.5-point margin there in 2024—and his established record across six prior victories. Hill secured his party nomination comfortably in the March primary and benefits from seniority as chair of the House Financial Services Committee. Democrat Chris Jones, a nuclear engineer and 2022 gubernatorial nominee, advanced easily in his primary and has highlighted recent internal polling showing a statistical tie or narrow lead, prompting the DCCC to designate the seat “in play.” Most nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican, citing structural advantages that outweigh periodic survey fluctuations and Democratic messaging on economic issues. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals while assigning Jones a modest but real chance tied to turnout dynamics and any late national shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$14,903Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican French Hill holds a strong position in Arkansas’s 2nd District for the November 2026 general election, supported by the district’s Republican lean—evidenced by Donald Trump’s 8.5-point margin there in 2024—and his established record across six prior victories. Hill secured his party nomination comfortably in the March primary and benefits from seniority as chair of the House Financial Services Committee. Democrat Chris Jones, a nuclear engineer and 2022 gubernatorial nominee, advanced easily in his primary and has highlighted recent internal polling showing a statistical tie or narrow lead, prompting the DCCC to designate the seat “in play.” Most nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican, citing structural advantages that outweigh periodic survey fluctuations and Democratic messaging on economic issues. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals while assigning Jones a modest but real chance tied to turnout dynamics and any late national shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$14,903Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican French Hill holds a strong position in Arkansas’s 2nd District for the November 2026 general election, supported by the district’s Republican lean—evidenced by Donald Trump’s 8.5-point margin there in 2024—and his established record across six prior victories. Hill secured his party nomination comfortably in the March primary and benefits from seniority as chair of the House Financial Services Committee. Democrat Chris Jones, a nuclear engineer and 2022 gubernatorial nominee, advanced easily in his primary and has highlighted recent internal polling showing a statistical tie or narrow lead, prompting the DCCC to designate the seat “in play.” Most nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican, citing structural advantages that outweigh periodic survey fluctuations and Democratic messaging on economic issues. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals while assigning Jones a modest but real chance tied to turnout dynamics and any late national shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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