Economists anticipate Brazil’s Q2 2026 GDP expanding just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, sharply below the 1.1% pace recorded in Q1, as the elevated Selic benchmark rate near 14% curbs investment and real income growth amid persistent inflation pressures. The Brazil Focus survey’s latest cut to a 1.92% full-year 2026 growth forecast reflects this tightening, with analysts citing fiscal caution and external headwinds as additional drags. Low unemployment at 5.3% and record employment levels offer some support via household spending, yet these factors have not offset the broader moderation priced into trader consensus. The September 1 IBGE release remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift implied probabilities around the dominant 0.3%–0.5% outcome band.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour0,3 %–0,5 % 76.8%
0,6 %–0,8 % 13.8%
0,0 %–0,2 % 7.3%
<0,0 % 1.3%
$63,540 Vol.
$63,540 Vol.
1 sept. 2026
<0,0 %
7%
0,0 %–0,2 %
7%
0,3 %–0,5 %
77%
0,6 %–0,8 %
17%
0,9 %–1,1 %
1%
1,2 %–1,4 %
<1%
≥1,5 %
<1%
0,3 %–0,5 % 76.8%
0,6 %–0,8 % 13.8%
0,0 %–0,2 % 7.3%
<0,0 % 1.3%
$63,540 Vol.
$63,540 Vol.
1 sept. 2026
<0,0 %
$1,791 Vol.
7%
0,0 %–0,2 %
$4,022 Vol.
7%
0,3 %–0,5 %
$30,021 Vol.
77%
0,6 %–0,8 %
$16,561 Vol.
17%
0,9 %–1,1 %
$6,686 Vol.
1%
1,2 %–1,4 %
$3,261 Vol.
<1%
≥1,5 %
$1,198 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlEconomists anticipate Brazil’s Q2 2026 GDP expanding just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, sharply below the 1.1% pace recorded in Q1, as the elevated Selic benchmark rate near 14% curbs investment and real income growth amid persistent inflation pressures. The Brazil Focus survey’s latest cut to a 1.92% full-year 2026 growth forecast reflects this tightening, with analysts citing fiscal caution and external headwinds as additional drags. Low unemployment at 5.3% and record employment levels offer some support via household spending, yet these factors have not offset the broader moderation priced into trader consensus. The September 1 IBGE release remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift implied probabilities around the dominant 0.3%–0.5% outcome band.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Marché ouvert : Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$63,540Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlEconomists anticipate Brazil’s Q2 2026 GDP expanding just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, sharply below the 1.1% pace recorded in Q1, as the elevated Selic benchmark rate near 14% curbs investment and real income growth amid persistent inflation pressures. The Brazil Focus survey’s latest cut to a 1.92% full-year 2026 growth forecast reflects this tightening, with analysts citing fiscal caution and external headwinds as additional drags. Low unemployment at 5.3% and record employment levels offer some support via household spending, yet these factors have not offset the broader moderation priced into trader consensus. The September 1 IBGE release remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift implied probabilities around the dominant 0.3%–0.5% outcome band.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$63,540Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Economists anticipate Brazil’s Q2 2026 GDP expanding just 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, sharply below the 1.1% pace recorded in Q1, as the elevated Selic benchmark rate near 14% curbs investment and real income growth amid persistent inflation pressures. The Brazil Focus survey’s latest cut to a 1.92% full-year 2026 growth forecast reflects this tightening, with analysts citing fiscal caution and external headwinds as additional drags. Low unemployment at 5.3% and record employment levels offer some support via household spending, yet these factors have not offset the broader moderation priced into trader consensus. The September 1 IBGE release remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift implied probabilities around the dominant 0.3%–0.5% outcome band.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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