Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth outlook reflects the fading boost from the World Cup co-hosting and a sequential slowdown after the 1.4% QoQ rebound in Q2, which lifted the full-year Banxico forecast to 1.5%. Traders price the 2.0-2.5% bin highest amid persistent USMCA review uncertainty that continues to weigh on investment and manufacturing, while resilient consumption and a tight 2.9% unemployment rate provide support. Recent inflation readings near 3.3% and mixed June activity data underscore the closely contested range between 1.5% and 3.0% outcomes, with Q3 data due in late October serving as the next key catalyst for resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour2.0-2.5% 32%
2.5-3.0% 20%
1.0-1.5% 19%
1.5-2.0% 17%
$23,204 Vol.
$23,204 Vol.
30 oct. 2026
<0.5%
1%
0.5-1.0%
4%
1.0-1.5%
19%
1.5-2.0%
17%
2.0-2.5%
32%
2.5-3.0%
20%
3.0-3.5%
5%
3.5%+
3%
2.0-2.5% 32%
2.5-3.0% 20%
1.0-1.5% 19%
1.5-2.0% 17%
$23,204 Vol.
$23,204 Vol.
30 oct. 2026
<0.5%
$367 Vol.
1%
0.5-1.0%
$258 Vol.
4%
1.0-1.5%
$3,287 Vol.
19%
1.5-2.0%
$7,247 Vol.
17%
2.0-2.5%
$10,363 Vol.
32%
2.5-3.0%
$1,070 Vol.
20%
3.0-3.5%
$344 Vol.
5%
3.5%+
$268 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth outlook reflects the fading boost from the World Cup co-hosting and a sequential slowdown after the 1.4% QoQ rebound in Q2, which lifted the full-year Banxico forecast to 1.5%. Traders price the 2.0-2.5% bin highest amid persistent USMCA review uncertainty that continues to weigh on investment and manufacturing, while resilient consumption and a tight 2.9% unemployment rate provide support. Recent inflation readings near 3.3% and mixed June activity data underscore the closely contested range between 1.5% and 3.0% outcomes, with Q3 data due in late October serving as the next key catalyst for resolution.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$23,204Date de fin
30 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth outlook reflects the fading boost from the World Cup co-hosting and a sequential slowdown after the 1.4% QoQ rebound in Q2, which lifted the full-year Banxico forecast to 1.5%. Traders price the 2.0-2.5% bin highest amid persistent USMCA review uncertainty that continues to weigh on investment and manufacturing, while resilient consumption and a tight 2.9% unemployment rate provide support. Recent inflation readings near 3.3% and mixed June activity data underscore the closely contested range between 1.5% and 3.0% outcomes, with Q3 data due in late October serving as the next key catalyst for resolution.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$23,204Date de fin
30 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Mexico’s Q3 2026 GDP growth outlook reflects the fading boost from the World Cup co-hosting and a sequential slowdown after the 1.4% QoQ rebound in Q2, which lifted the full-year Banxico forecast to 1.5%. Traders price the 2.0-2.5% bin highest amid persistent USMCA review uncertainty that continues to weigh on investment and manufacturing, while resilient consumption and a tight 2.9% unemployment rate provide support. Recent inflation readings near 3.3% and mixed June activity data underscore the closely contested range between 1.5% and 3.0% outcomes, with Q3 data due in late October serving as the next key catalyst for resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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