Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through extensive anti-corruption and loyalty purges of the People’s Liberation Army high command, including the recent removals of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli in 2026, has left the Chinese Communist Party leadership structure tightly aligned with the paramount leader. These actions, combined with the absence of organized elite factions or public signals of dissent capable of mounting a challenge, underpin trader expectations that a coup attempt remains highly improbable before 2027. Official emphasis on political discipline, ongoing military rebuilding under Xi’s direct oversight, and assessments of regime stability further reinforce the current market consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
5% chance
$156,800 Vol.
$156,800 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
5% chance
$156,800 Vol.
$156,800 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through extensive anti-corruption and loyalty purges of the People’s Liberation Army high command, including the recent removals of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli in 2026, has left the Chinese Communist Party leadership structure tightly aligned with the paramount leader. These actions, combined with the absence of organized elite factions or public signals of dissent capable of mounting a challenge, underpin trader expectations that a coup attempt remains highly improbable before 2027. Official emphasis on political discipline, ongoing military rebuilding under Xi’s direct oversight, and assessments of regime stability further reinforce the current market consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$156,800Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through extensive anti-corruption and loyalty purges of the People’s Liberation Army high command, including the recent removals of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli in 2026, has left the Chinese Communist Party leadership structure tightly aligned with the paramount leader. These actions, combined with the absence of organized elite factions or public signals of dissent capable of mounting a challenge, underpin trader expectations that a coup attempt remains highly improbable before 2027. Official emphasis on political discipline, ongoing military rebuilding under Xi’s direct oversight, and assessments of regime stability further reinforce the current market consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$156,800Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through extensive anti-corruption and loyalty purges of the People’s Liberation Army high command, including the recent removals of senior Central Military Commission figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli in 2026, has left the Chinese Communist Party leadership structure tightly aligned with the paramount leader. These actions, combined with the absence of organized elite factions or public signals of dissent capable of mounting a challenge, underpin trader expectations that a coup attempt remains highly improbable before 2027. Official emphasis on political discipline, ongoing military rebuilding under Xi’s direct oversight, and assessments of regime stability further reinforce the current market consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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