Erdoğan’s current five-year term, secured in the 2023 election, extends through 2028, creating a structural barrier to any departure by the end of 2026 absent resignation or unforeseen incapacity. The ruling AKP-MHP alliance has signaled continuity, with recent statements from MHP figures endorsing his candidacy for the next presidential vote and advisers outlining procedural steps, such as a parliamentary early-election call, to enable another run under constitutional exceptions. No snap election has been triggered, opposition parties remain fragmented amid legal challenges, and Erdoğan continues active governance including cabinet meetings and public appearances as of September 2026. These factors anchor trader consensus that removal before the resolution window is improbable.