Recent military strikes by the United States and Israel in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving much of the program dormant with hundreds of kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium stockpiled in inaccessible or backfilled tunnels. The IAEA's September 2026 report underscores ongoing verification gaps, as inspectors lack access to bombed sites and cannot confirm the stockpile's status or any enrichment activity. An interim memorandum of understanding reached in June 2026 envisions resumed inspections and limits on enrichment, though implementation disputes persist amid broader U.S.-Iran talks. These factors, combined with Iran's formal non-weaponization stance and lack of operational cascades, underpin trader consensus that a confirmed nuclear device by the end of 2026 remains unlikely. Potential shifts could arise from accelerated recovery of surviving centrifuges, a policy reversal by Iranian leadership, or breakdown in diplomatic efforts allowing undetected weaponization of existing material.