Traders assign 95.3% probability to no Iranian nuclear test before 2027 because recent U.S. and Israeli strikes have damaged enrichment and weaponization facilities, while IAEA inspectors lack access to verify the status of remaining 60% enriched uranium stockpiles or any reconstitution efforts. Satellite imagery shows accelerated construction at the underground Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz, interpreted as hardening and relocation of centrifuges rather than preparation for an explosive test. Heightened U.S. threats of further strikes, combined with Iran's diplomatic isolation and short remaining timeline through 2026, reinforce the current trader consensus. A rapid shift could occur if Tehran decides to conduct a demonstration test at an undisclosed site amid escalation, though verifiable indicators of such a move remain absent.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire iranien avant 2027 ?
Essai nucléaire iranien avant 2027 ?
Oui
4% chance
$257,368 Vol.
$257,368 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
4% chance
$257,368 Vol.
$257,368 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign 95.3% probability to no Iranian nuclear test before 2027 because recent U.S. and Israeli strikes have damaged enrichment and weaponization facilities, while IAEA inspectors lack access to verify the status of remaining 60% enriched uranium stockpiles or any reconstitution efforts. Satellite imagery shows accelerated construction at the underground Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz, interpreted as hardening and relocation of centrifuges rather than preparation for an explosive test. Heightened U.S. threats of further strikes, combined with Iran's diplomatic isolation and short remaining timeline through 2026, reinforce the current trader consensus. A rapid shift could occur if Tehran decides to conduct a demonstration test at an undisclosed site amid escalation, though verifiable indicators of such a move remain absent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$257,368Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign 95.3% probability to no Iranian nuclear test before 2027 because recent U.S. and Israeli strikes have damaged enrichment and weaponization facilities, while IAEA inspectors lack access to verify the status of remaining 60% enriched uranium stockpiles or any reconstitution efforts. Satellite imagery shows accelerated construction at the underground Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz, interpreted as hardening and relocation of centrifuges rather than preparation for an explosive test. Heightened U.S. threats of further strikes, combined with Iran's diplomatic isolation and short remaining timeline through 2026, reinforce the current trader consensus. A rapid shift could occur if Tehran decides to conduct a demonstration test at an undisclosed site amid escalation, though verifiable indicators of such a move remain absent.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$257,368Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Traders assign 95.3% probability to no Iranian nuclear test before 2027 because recent U.S. and Israeli strikes have damaged enrichment and weaponization facilities, while IAEA inspectors lack access to verify the status of remaining 60% enriched uranium stockpiles or any reconstitution efforts. Satellite imagery shows accelerated construction at the underground Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz, interpreted as hardening and relocation of centrifuges rather than preparation for an explosive test. Heightened U.S. threats of further strikes, combined with Iran's diplomatic isolation and short remaining timeline through 2026, reinforce the current trader consensus. A rapid shift could occur if Tehran decides to conduct a demonstration test at an undisclosed site amid escalation, though verifiable indicators of such a move remain absent.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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