Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republican governor seeking re-election, maintains a dominant position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent polling leads of 13–18 points in first-round scenarios across recent surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and others conducted in August 2026. His approval ratings hover around 56–63%, with lower rejection compared to Fernando Haddad (PT), the main challenger who trails at 27–35%. Withdrawals by potential rivals such as Kim Kataguiri narrowed the field, concentrating support between the two frontrunners ahead of the October 4 first round and possible October 25 runoff. Traders price in a first-round victory or decisive margin based on this incumbency advantage and stable voter preferences. A late surge by minor candidates or unforeseen developments could still alter trajectories in the final weeks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTarcísio de Freitas 97.6%
Fernando Haddad 1.8%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$293,154 Vol.
$293,154 Vol.
3 oct. 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
98%
Fernando Haddad
2%
Erika Hilton
<1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 97.6%
Fernando Haddad 1.8%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$293,154 Vol.
$293,154 Vol.
3 oct. 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$133,881 Vol.
98%
Fernando Haddad
$48,750 Vol.
2%
Erika Hilton
$23,007 Vol.
<1%
Kim Kataguiri
$76,849 Vol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republican governor seeking re-election, maintains a dominant position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent polling leads of 13–18 points in first-round scenarios across recent surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and others conducted in August 2026. His approval ratings hover around 56–63%, with lower rejection compared to Fernando Haddad (PT), the main challenger who trails at 27–35%. Withdrawals by potential rivals such as Kim Kataguiri narrowed the field, concentrating support between the two frontrunners ahead of the October 4 first round and possible October 25 runoff. Traders price in a first-round victory or decisive margin based on this incumbency advantage and stable voter preferences. A late surge by minor candidates or unforeseen developments could still alter trajectories in the final weeks.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Marché ouvert : Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volume
$293,154Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republican governor seeking re-election, maintains a dominant position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent polling leads of 13–18 points in first-round scenarios across recent surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and others conducted in August 2026. His approval ratings hover around 56–63%, with lower rejection compared to Fernando Haddad (PT), the main challenger who trails at 27–35%. Withdrawals by potential rivals such as Kim Kataguiri narrowed the field, concentrating support between the two frontrunners ahead of the October 4 first round and possible October 25 runoff. Traders price in a first-round victory or decisive margin based on this incumbency advantage and stable voter preferences. A late surge by minor candidates or unforeseen developments could still alter trajectories in the final weeks.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$293,154Date de fin
4 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent Republican governor seeking re-election, maintains a dominant position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent polling leads of 13–18 points in first-round scenarios across recent surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and others conducted in August 2026. His approval ratings hover around 56–63%, with lower rejection compared to Fernando Haddad (PT), the main challenger who trails at 27–35%. Withdrawals by potential rivals such as Kim Kataguiri narrowed the field, concentrating support between the two frontrunners ahead of the October 4 first round and possible October 25 runoff. Traders price in a first-round victory or decisive margin based on this incumbency advantage and stable voter preferences. A late surge by minor candidates or unforeseen developments could still alter trajectories in the final weeks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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