The partisan lean of Texas's 11th congressional district, which has delivered consistent Republican victories by large margins in recent elections, underpins trader consensus around the incumbent's strong position. August Pfluger's established incumbency advantage, combined with modest Democratic opposition in a low-turnout environment, reinforces the current implied probabilities. Historical base rates in comparable safe seats indicate limited vulnerability unless disrupted by major factors. Late developments such as a national electoral wave, unexpected primary challenge, redistricting adjustments, or candidate-specific controversies could still narrow the gap before the November general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTX-11 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
TX-11 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$32,191 Vol.
$32,191 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
August Pfluger (R)
94%
Claire Reynolds (D)
6%
$32,191 Vol.
$32,191 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
August Pfluger (R)
$8,893 Vol.
94%
Claire Reynolds (D)
$23,298 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The partisan lean of Texas's 11th congressional district, which has delivered consistent Republican victories by large margins in recent elections, underpins trader consensus around the incumbent's strong position. August Pfluger's established incumbency advantage, combined with modest Democratic opposition in a low-turnout environment, reinforces the current implied probabilities. Historical base rates in comparable safe seats indicate limited vulnerability unless disrupted by major factors. Late developments such as a national electoral wave, unexpected primary challenge, redistricting adjustments, or candidate-specific controversies could still narrow the gap before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$32,191Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The partisan lean of Texas's 11th congressional district, which has delivered consistent Republican victories by large margins in recent elections, underpins trader consensus around the incumbent's strong position. August Pfluger's established incumbency advantage, combined with modest Democratic opposition in a low-turnout environment, reinforces the current implied probabilities. Historical base rates in comparable safe seats indicate limited vulnerability unless disrupted by major factors. Late developments such as a national electoral wave, unexpected primary challenge, redistricting adjustments, or candidate-specific controversies could still narrow the gap before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,191Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...The partisan lean of Texas's 11th congressional district, which has delivered consistent Republican victories by large margins in recent elections, underpins trader consensus around the incumbent's strong position. August Pfluger's established incumbency advantage, combined with modest Democratic opposition in a low-turnout environment, reinforces the current implied probabilities. Historical base rates in comparable safe seats indicate limited vulnerability unless disrupted by major factors. Late developments such as a national electoral wave, unexpected primary challenge, redistricting adjustments, or candidate-specific controversies could still narrow the gap before the November general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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