President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China remains the central driver of trader sentiment around any potential resumption of explosive tests. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and National Nuclear Security Administration officials have framed the effort as limited to subcritical experiments, hydronuclear tests, or delivery-system evaluations rather than full-yield detonations at the Nevada National Security Site, consistent with annual stockpile stewardship certifications that continue without explosive testing. Congressional oversight hearings through mid-2026 have reinforced that no technical requirement exists for explosive tests, while internal planning documents reference possible actions before 2028. Market probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether low-yield or non-explosive activities will satisfy the original directive or trigger broader escalation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire américain par… ?
Essai nucléaire américain par… ?
$795,287 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
30 septembre 2026
1%
31 décembre 2026
5%
$795,287 Vol.
30 septembre 2026
$57,555 Vol.
1%
31 décembre 2026
$76,920 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China remains the central driver of trader sentiment around any potential resumption of explosive tests. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and National Nuclear Security Administration officials have framed the effort as limited to subcritical experiments, hydronuclear tests, or delivery-system evaluations rather than full-yield detonations at the Nevada National Security Site, consistent with annual stockpile stewardship certifications that continue without explosive testing. Congressional oversight hearings through mid-2026 have reinforced that no technical requirement exists for explosive tests, while internal planning documents reference possible actions before 2028. Market probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether low-yield or non-explosive activities will satisfy the original directive or trigger broader escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$795,287Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China remains the central driver of trader sentiment around any potential resumption of explosive tests. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and National Nuclear Security Administration officials have framed the effort as limited to subcritical experiments, hydronuclear tests, or delivery-system evaluations rather than full-yield detonations at the Nevada National Security Site, consistent with annual stockpile stewardship certifications that continue without explosive testing. Congressional oversight hearings through mid-2026 have reinforced that no technical requirement exists for explosive tests, while internal planning documents reference possible actions before 2028. Market probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether low-yield or non-explosive activities will satisfy the original directive or trigger broader escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$795,287Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China remains the central driver of trader sentiment around any potential resumption of explosive tests. Subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright and National Nuclear Security Administration officials have framed the effort as limited to subcritical experiments, hydronuclear tests, or delivery-system evaluations rather than full-yield detonations at the Nevada National Security Site, consistent with annual stockpile stewardship certifications that continue without explosive testing. Congressional oversight hearings through mid-2026 have reinforced that no technical requirement exists for explosive tests, while internal planning documents reference possible actions before 2028. Market probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether low-yield or non-explosive activities will satisfy the original directive or trigger broader escalation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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