Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures already 1.8°C above average and forecasts for a very strong event peaking in fall, represent the dominant influence on September 2026 tornado prospects. El Niño typically enhances vertical wind shear and disrupts the low-level jet and moisture transport patterns that favor supercell development across the Great Plains and Midwest, often reducing counts relative to La Niña years. September sits in a transitional climatological window when activity normally declines from spring peaks, and ensemble models show limited consensus on whether transient weather regimes will overcome this suppression. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 50–74 bin reflects this uncertainty in short-term atmospheric steering and exact ENSO impacts, with traders weighting historical analogs against the latest NOAA guidance on jet stream positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTornades américaines de septembre 2026
Tornades américaines de septembre 2026
50 - 74 53%
25 - 49 52%
75 - 124 48%
125 ou plus 48%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 oct. 2026
Moins de 25
43%
25 - 49
52%
50 - 74
53%
75 - 124
48%
125 ou plus
48%
50 - 74 53%
25 - 49 52%
75 - 124 48%
125 ou plus 48%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
14 oct. 2026
Moins de 25
$0 Vol.
43%
25 - 49
$0 Vol.
52%
50 - 74
$0 Vol.
53%
75 - 124
$0 Vol.
48%
125 ou plus
$0 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures already 1.8°C above average and forecasts for a very strong event peaking in fall, represent the dominant influence on September 2026 tornado prospects. El Niño typically enhances vertical wind shear and disrupts the low-level jet and moisture transport patterns that favor supercell development across the Great Plains and Midwest, often reducing counts relative to La Niña years. September sits in a transitional climatological window when activity normally declines from spring peaks, and ensemble models show limited consensus on whether transient weather regimes will overcome this suppression. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 50–74 bin reflects this uncertainty in short-term atmospheric steering and exact ENSO impacts, with traders weighting historical analogs against the latest NOAA guidance on jet stream positioning.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Marché ouvert : Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
15 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures already 1.8°C above average and forecasts for a very strong event peaking in fall, represent the dominant influence on September 2026 tornado prospects. El Niño typically enhances vertical wind shear and disrupts the low-level jet and moisture transport patterns that favor supercell development across the Great Plains and Midwest, often reducing counts relative to La Niña years. September sits in a transitional climatological window when activity normally declines from spring peaks, and ensemble models show limited consensus on whether transient weather regimes will overcome this suppression. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 50–74 bin reflects this uncertainty in short-term atmospheric steering and exact ENSO impacts, with traders weighting historical analogs against the latest NOAA guidance on jet stream positioning.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$0Date de fin
15 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures already 1.8°C above average and forecasts for a very strong event peaking in fall, represent the dominant influence on September 2026 tornado prospects. El Niño typically enhances vertical wind shear and disrupts the low-level jet and moisture transport patterns that favor supercell development across the Great Plains and Midwest, often reducing counts relative to La Niña years. September sits in a transitional climatological window when activity normally declines from spring peaks, and ensemble models show limited consensus on whether transient weather regimes will overcome this suppression. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 50–74 bin reflects this uncertainty in short-term atmospheric steering and exact ENSO impacts, with traders weighting historical analogs against the latest NOAA guidance on jet stream positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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