A developing super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already near +2.8 °C and forecast to peak above +3.5 °C later in 2026, supplies the dominant warming influence on September global mean surface temperatures through enhanced heat release from the tropical Pacific. Official monitoring from NOAA and ECMWF seasonal ensembles shows this event strengthening rapidly, consistent with observed jumps in recent monthly anomalies. However, the exact September outcome remains uncertain due to short-term atmospheric variability, potential model divergence in the timing of peak impacts, and measurement revisions in reanalyses such as ERA5. Trader-implied odds clustered near even across the 1.30–1.49 °C range reflect this balance between the strong El Niño signal and residual spread in the final monthly value, with upcoming daily observations and updated model runs likely to narrow the distribution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourSeptembre 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC)
Septembre 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC)
<1,30ºC 50%
1,30–1,34ºC 50%
1,35–1,39ºC 50%
1,40–1,44ºC 50%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
9 oct. 2026
<1,30ºC
50%
1,30–1,34ºC
50%
1,35–1,39ºC
50%
1,40–1,44ºC
50%
1,45–1,49ºC
50%
>1,49ºC
50%
<1,30ºC 50%
1,30–1,34ºC 50%
1,35–1,39ºC 50%
1,40–1,44ºC 50%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
9 oct. 2026
<1,30ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,30–1,34ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,35–1,39ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,40–1,44ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,45–1,49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
>1,49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already near +2.8 °C and forecast to peak above +3.5 °C later in 2026, supplies the dominant warming influence on September global mean surface temperatures through enhanced heat release from the tropical Pacific. Official monitoring from NOAA and ECMWF seasonal ensembles shows this event strengthening rapidly, consistent with observed jumps in recent monthly anomalies. However, the exact September outcome remains uncertain due to short-term atmospheric variability, potential model divergence in the timing of peak impacts, and measurement revisions in reanalyses such as ERA5. Trader-implied odds clustered near even across the 1.30–1.49 °C range reflect this balance between the strong El Niño signal and residual spread in the final monthly value, with upcoming daily observations and updated model runs likely to narrow the distribution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Marché ouvert : Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
10 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETSource de résolution
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already near +2.8 °C and forecast to peak above +3.5 °C later in 2026, supplies the dominant warming influence on September global mean surface temperatures through enhanced heat release from the tropical Pacific. Official monitoring from NOAA and ECMWF seasonal ensembles shows this event strengthening rapidly, consistent with observed jumps in recent monthly anomalies. However, the exact September outcome remains uncertain due to short-term atmospheric variability, potential model divergence in the timing of peak impacts, and measurement revisions in reanalyses such as ERA5. Trader-implied odds clustered near even across the 1.30–1.49 °C range reflect this balance between the strong El Niño signal and residual spread in the final monthly value, with upcoming daily observations and updated model runs likely to narrow the distribution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$0Date de fin
10 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETSource de résolution
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...A developing super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already near +2.8 °C and forecast to peak above +3.5 °C later in 2026, supplies the dominant warming influence on September global mean surface temperatures through enhanced heat release from the tropical Pacific. Official monitoring from NOAA and ECMWF seasonal ensembles shows this event strengthening rapidly, consistent with observed jumps in recent monthly anomalies. However, the exact September outcome remains uncertain due to short-term atmospheric variability, potential model divergence in the timing of peak impacts, and measurement revisions in reanalyses such as ERA5. Trader-implied odds clustered near even across the 1.30–1.49 °C range reflect this balance between the strong El Niño signal and residual spread in the final monthly value, with upcoming daily observations and updated model runs likely to narrow the distribution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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