Global temperature records for August 2026 show a monthly anomaly centered in the 1.38–1.41 °C range above the pre-industrial baseline, aligning with the market’s 98.8 % implied probability. Surface and satellite datasets from NOAA and NASA indicate continued long-term warming superimposed on neutral ENSO conditions following the 2023–2025 El Niño decay. Model ensembles and early agency releases place the most likely value near 1.40 °C, with narrow uncertainty bounds. Revisions in homogenization methods, late-arriving Arctic buoy data, or adjustments to baseline periods remain the primary realistic pathways that could shift the final figure outside the dominant bin before official confirmation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAoût 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC) (GRÈVES PLUS ÉLEVÉES)
Août 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC) (GRÈVES PLUS ÉLEVÉES)
1.38–1.41ºC 98.8%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.9%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,755 Vol.
$20,755 Vol.
31 août 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
2%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 98.8%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.9%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,755 Vol.
$20,755 Vol.
31 août 2026
<1.30ºC
$657 Vol.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 Vol.
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,138 Vol.
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,701 Vol.
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,267 Vol.
2%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Global temperature records for August 2026 show a monthly anomaly centered in the 1.38–1.41 °C range above the pre-industrial baseline, aligning with the market’s 98.8 % implied probability. Surface and satellite datasets from NOAA and NASA indicate continued long-term warming superimposed on neutral ENSO conditions following the 2023–2025 El Niño decay. Model ensembles and early agency releases place the most likely value near 1.40 °C, with narrow uncertainty bounds. Revisions in homogenization methods, late-arriving Arctic buoy data, or adjustments to baseline periods remain the primary realistic pathways that could shift the final figure outside the dominant bin before official confirmation.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Marché ouvert : Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Volume
$20,755Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Global temperature records for August 2026 show a monthly anomaly centered in the 1.38–1.41 °C range above the pre-industrial baseline, aligning with the market’s 98.8 % implied probability. Surface and satellite datasets from NOAA and NASA indicate continued long-term warming superimposed on neutral ENSO conditions following the 2023–2025 El Niño decay. Model ensembles and early agency releases place the most likely value near 1.40 °C, with narrow uncertainty bounds. Revisions in homogenization methods, late-arriving Arctic buoy data, or adjustments to baseline periods remain the primary realistic pathways that could shift the final figure outside the dominant bin before official confirmation.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$20,755Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Global temperature records for August 2026 show a monthly anomaly centered in the 1.38–1.41 °C range above the pre-industrial baseline, aligning with the market’s 98.8 % implied probability. Surface and satellite datasets from NOAA and NASA indicate continued long-term warming superimposed on neutral ENSO conditions following the 2023–2025 El Niño decay. Model ensembles and early agency releases place the most likely value near 1.40 °C, with narrow uncertainty bounds. Revisions in homogenization methods, late-arriving Arctic buoy data, or adjustments to baseline periods remain the primary realistic pathways that could shift the final figure outside the dominant bin before official confirmation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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