Apple’s established annual release cadence, reinforced by the September 2026 launch of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models alongside the new foldable iPhone Duo, underpins the near-certain 99.8% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release this year. Supply-chain reports and official Apple announcements confirm premium variants reached pre-order and availability in September, aligning with historical patterns of flagship hardware debuts despite component shortages. Traders view the split schedule—prioritizing high-margin Pro devices in fall—as a minor adjustment rather than a cancellation, with the base iPhone 18 expected in early 2027. While regulatory hurdles or severe production issues could theoretically intervene, current verified developments leave little room for reversal before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
>99% chance
$251,958 Vol.
$251,958 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
>99% chance
$251,958 Vol.
$251,958 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual release cadence, reinforced by the September 2026 launch of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models alongside the new foldable iPhone Duo, underpins the near-certain 99.8% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release this year. Supply-chain reports and official Apple announcements confirm premium variants reached pre-order and availability in September, aligning with historical patterns of flagship hardware debuts despite component shortages. Traders view the split schedule—prioritizing high-margin Pro devices in fall—as a minor adjustment rather than a cancellation, with the base iPhone 18 expected in early 2027. While regulatory hurdles or severe production issues could theoretically intervene, current verified developments leave little room for reversal before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$251,958Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual release cadence, reinforced by the September 2026 launch of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models alongside the new foldable iPhone Duo, underpins the near-certain 99.8% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release this year. Supply-chain reports and official Apple announcements confirm premium variants reached pre-order and availability in September, aligning with historical patterns of flagship hardware debuts despite component shortages. Traders view the split schedule—prioritizing high-margin Pro devices in fall—as a minor adjustment rather than a cancellation, with the base iPhone 18 expected in early 2027. While regulatory hurdles or severe production issues could theoretically intervene, current verified developments leave little room for reversal before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$251,958Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Apple’s established annual release cadence, reinforced by the September 2026 launch of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models alongside the new foldable iPhone Duo, underpins the near-certain 99.8% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 release this year. Supply-chain reports and official Apple announcements confirm premium variants reached pre-order and availability in September, aligning with historical patterns of flagship hardware debuts despite component shortages. Traders view the split schedule—prioritizing high-margin Pro devices in fall—as a minor adjustment rather than a cancellation, with the base iPhone 18 expected in early 2027. While regulatory hurdles or severe production issues could theoretically intervene, current verified developments leave little room for reversal before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes