Apple's decision to shelve a true Vision Pro successor in favor of lighter smart glasses drives the 96% market-implied odds against a release before 2027. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported in May and June 2026 that the company canceled the planned cheaper Vision Air variant, reassigned mixed-reality engineers, and placed headset development on ice until it achieves a substantially lighter and lower-cost design—pushing any second-generation model to late 2028 or 2029 at earliest. The October 2025 M5 refresh of the original headset and ongoing visionOS updates confirm Apple is iterating on the current platform rather than launching a new one. While an unforeseen technical breakthrough or strategic pivot could theoretically accelerate timelines, credible supply-chain reporting shows no active development path to a 2026 launch.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourApple Vision Pro 2 sorti avant 2027 ?
Apple Vision Pro 2 sorti avant 2027 ?
Oui
4% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
4% chance
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's decision to shelve a true Vision Pro successor in favor of lighter smart glasses drives the 96% market-implied odds against a release before 2027. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported in May and June 2026 that the company canceled the planned cheaper Vision Air variant, reassigned mixed-reality engineers, and placed headset development on ice until it achieves a substantially lighter and lower-cost design—pushing any second-generation model to late 2028 or 2029 at earliest. The October 2025 M5 refresh of the original headset and ongoing visionOS updates confirm Apple is iterating on the current platform rather than launching a new one. While an unforeseen technical breakthrough or strategic pivot could theoretically accelerate timelines, credible supply-chain reporting shows no active development path to a 2026 launch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$6,207Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's decision to shelve a true Vision Pro successor in favor of lighter smart glasses drives the 96% market-implied odds against a release before 2027. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported in May and June 2026 that the company canceled the planned cheaper Vision Air variant, reassigned mixed-reality engineers, and placed headset development on ice until it achieves a substantially lighter and lower-cost design—pushing any second-generation model to late 2028 or 2029 at earliest. The October 2025 M5 refresh of the original headset and ongoing visionOS updates confirm Apple is iterating on the current platform rather than launching a new one. While an unforeseen technical breakthrough or strategic pivot could theoretically accelerate timelines, credible supply-chain reporting shows no active development path to a 2026 launch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,212Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Apple's decision to shelve a true Vision Pro successor in favor of lighter smart glasses drives the 96% market-implied odds against a release before 2027. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported in May and June 2026 that the company canceled the planned cheaper Vision Air variant, reassigned mixed-reality engineers, and placed headset development on ice until it achieves a substantially lighter and lower-cost design—pushing any second-generation model to late 2028 or 2029 at earliest. The October 2025 M5 refresh of the original headset and ongoing visionOS updates confirm Apple is iterating on the current platform rather than launching a new one. While an unforeseen technical breakthrough or strategic pivot could theoretically accelerate timelines, credible supply-chain reporting shows no active development path to a 2026 launch.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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