**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature near 7–9°C (45–48°F) for Wellington on September 1, driven primarily by northwest winds advecting milder maritime air and limited overnight radiative cooling under partly clear skies.** Official guidance from sources such as MetService and international models (GFS, ECMWF) shows the lowest readings occurring in the early morning hours before daytime heating and stronger winds raise temperatures to 12–14°C. Recent August observations, with overnight lows frequently around 8–10°C amid variable southerly and northwesterly flows, provide climatological context for traders assessing the likelihood of dipping to 3–5°C. Key differentiating factors include the strength and direction of the gradient wind (stronger NW flow reduces surface cooling), cloud cover that traps heat versus clear conditions promoting radiational losses, and proximity to the relatively warm Tasman Sea moderating extremes. Model consensus favors values above 5°C, yet slight disagreements on timing of any frontal passage or wind shift introduce uncertainty that supports the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 3–5°C. Updated model runs and official briefings in the final hours before midnight will likely refine these probabilities.