Wu Hsiu-hua, the Kuomintang nominee and incumbent Taitung County Council speaker, holds an 86.5% implied probability in the market ahead of the November 28, 2026, election, reflecting the county’s long-standing KMT structural edge and the absence of major recent shifts that would alter trader consensus. Chen Ying, the Democratic Progressive Party nominee and legislator with indigenous Puyuma roots, trails at 14.5%, while independent Li Wu Ying-chih registers near 0.1%. Taitung has never elected a DPP magistrate, and Wu’s institutional role plus early KMT nomination in December 2025 have consolidated support. Key recent factors include the July 2026 withdrawal of former DPP legislator Liu Chao-hao to prevent vote-splitting, followed by former President Tsai Ing-wen’s public appearance with Chen Ying to unify the opposition. Candidate registration opened on August 31 with no new entrants or scandals moving the odds. Unproven corruption allegations around Wu’s family have not shifted polling or market pricing, and available surveys continue to show Wu ahead in head-to-head and multi-candidate scenarios. The market’s heavy favorite positioning aligns with historical KMT performance in the county and the limited time remaining before the vote for late developments to register.