Traders assign a 97.9% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2027, reflecting the consistent historical record of Congress raising or suspending the statutory debt limit ahead of any breach. The current $41.1 trillion ceiling, enacted in 2025, is projected to be reached between February and July 2027 according to analyses from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union, with Treasury extraordinary measures and cash reserves extending payment capacity several months further into 2028. Recent developments, including a continuing resolution funding the government through December 2026 and expectations of lame-duck action, reinforce expectations of routine resolution. While elevated deficits near $2 trillion and rising interest costs add fiscal pressure, the severe economic costs of default create strong bipartisan incentives for timely legislation. Potential disruptions remain possible from extended negotiations or unexpected fiscal shocks, though such events have not previously produced actual default.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
2% संभावना
$18,283 वॉल्यूम
$18,283 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
2% संभावना
$18,283 वॉल्यूम
$18,283 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97.9% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2027, reflecting the consistent historical record of Congress raising or suspending the statutory debt limit ahead of any breach. The current $41.1 trillion ceiling, enacted in 2025, is projected to be reached between February and July 2027 according to analyses from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union, with Treasury extraordinary measures and cash reserves extending payment capacity several months further into 2028. Recent developments, including a continuing resolution funding the government through December 2026 and expectations of lame-duck action, reinforce expectations of routine resolution. While elevated deficits near $2 trillion and rising interest costs add fiscal pressure, the severe economic costs of default create strong bipartisan incentives for timely legislation. Potential disruptions remain possible from extended negotiations or unexpected fiscal shocks, though such events have not previously produced actual default.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$18,283समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97.9% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2027, reflecting the consistent historical record of Congress raising or suspending the statutory debt limit ahead of any breach. The current $41.1 trillion ceiling, enacted in 2025, is projected to be reached between February and July 2027 according to analyses from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union, with Treasury extraordinary measures and cash reserves extending payment capacity several months further into 2028. Recent developments, including a continuing resolution funding the government through December 2026 and expectations of lame-duck action, reinforce expectations of routine resolution. While elevated deficits near $2 trillion and rising interest costs add fiscal pressure, the severe economic costs of default create strong bipartisan incentives for timely legislation. Potential disruptions remain possible from extended negotiations or unexpected fiscal shocks, though such events have not previously produced actual default.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
वॉल्यूम
$18,283समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97.9% probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2027, reflecting the consistent historical record of Congress raising or suspending the statutory debt limit ahead of any breach. The current $41.1 trillion ceiling, enacted in 2025, is projected to be reached between February and July 2027 according to analyses from the Bipartisan Policy Center and National Taxpayers Union, with Treasury extraordinary measures and cash reserves extending payment capacity several months further into 2028. Recent developments, including a continuing resolution funding the government through December 2026 and expectations of lame-duck action, reinforce expectations of routine resolution. While elevated deficits near $2 trillion and rising interest costs add fiscal pressure, the severe economic costs of default create strong bipartisan incentives for timely legislation. Potential disruptions remain possible from extended negotiations or unexpected fiscal shocks, though such events have not previously produced actual default.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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