Kathy Castor's incumbency and consistent polling edge anchor trader sentiment in the FL-14 race, where the nine-term Democrat holds a 63% implied probability against Republican nominee Mike Beltran. Redistricting enacted earlier in 2026 shifted the district fully into Hillsborough County, aligning it more closely with 2024 presidential voting patterns that favored Republicans, yet Castor has maintained leads in available surveys such as the July St. Pete Polls showing her at 46% to Beltran's 38%. Beltran secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with 46% of the vote in a crowded field, but mixed race ratings from outlets like Cook Political Report (toss-up) and Decision Desk HQ (lean Democratic) reflect ongoing uncertainty. Fundraising remains competitive, with both candidates drawing significant resources, while the general election timeline through November 3 leaves room for further shifts driven by turnout or late campaign developments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiFL-14 House Election Winner
FL-14 House Election Winner
$45,822 Vol.
$45,822 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Kathy Castor (D)
63%
Mike Beltran (R)
36%
$45,822 Vol.
$45,822 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Kathy Castor (D)
$23,541 Vol.
63%
Mike Beltran (R)
$22,281 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kathy Castor's incumbency and consistent polling edge anchor trader sentiment in the FL-14 race, where the nine-term Democrat holds a 63% implied probability against Republican nominee Mike Beltran. Redistricting enacted earlier in 2026 shifted the district fully into Hillsborough County, aligning it more closely with 2024 presidential voting patterns that favored Republicans, yet Castor has maintained leads in available surveys such as the July St. Pete Polls showing her at 46% to Beltran's 38%. Beltran secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with 46% of the vote in a crowded field, but mixed race ratings from outlets like Cook Political Report (toss-up) and Decision Desk HQ (lean Democratic) reflect ongoing uncertainty. Fundraising remains competitive, with both candidates drawing significant resources, while the general election timeline through November 3 leaves room for further shifts driven by turnout or late campaign developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Volume
$45,822Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kathy Castor's incumbency and consistent polling edge anchor trader sentiment in the FL-14 race, where the nine-term Democrat holds a 63% implied probability against Republican nominee Mike Beltran. Redistricting enacted earlier in 2026 shifted the district fully into Hillsborough County, aligning it more closely with 2024 presidential voting patterns that favored Republicans, yet Castor has maintained leads in available surveys such as the July St. Pete Polls showing her at 46% to Beltran's 38%. Beltran secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with 46% of the vote in a crowded field, but mixed race ratings from outlets like Cook Political Report (toss-up) and Decision Desk HQ (lean Democratic) reflect ongoing uncertainty. Fundraising remains competitive, with both candidates drawing significant resources, while the general election timeline through November 3 leaves room for further shifts driven by turnout or late campaign developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$45,822Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kathy Castor's incumbency and consistent polling edge anchor trader sentiment in the FL-14 race, where the nine-term Democrat holds a 63% implied probability against Republican nominee Mike Beltran. Redistricting enacted earlier in 2026 shifted the district fully into Hillsborough County, aligning it more closely with 2024 presidential voting patterns that favored Republicans, yet Castor has maintained leads in available surveys such as the July St. Pete Polls showing her at 46% to Beltran's 38%. Beltran secured the GOP nomination in the August 18 primary with 46% of the vote in a crowded field, but mixed race ratings from outlets like Cook Political Report (toss-up) and Decision Desk HQ (lean Democratic) reflect ongoing uncertainty. Fundraising remains competitive, with both candidates drawing significant resources, while the general election timeline through November 3 leaves room for further shifts driven by turnout or late campaign developments.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan