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icon for NY-23 House Election Winner
Politik·4 Nov Pemilu

NY-23 House Election Winner

icon for NY-23 House Election Winner
Politik·4 Nov Pemilu

NY-23 House Election Winner

Polymarket

$32,257 Vol.

Polymarket

$32,257 Vol.

Nick Langworthy (R)

$16,757 Vol.

96%

Aaron Gies (D)

$15,500 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nick Langworthy holds a commanding lead in the NY-23 House race due to the district's consistent Republican lean, reflected in its R+10 Cook Partisan Voting Index and multiple forecaster ratings of Solid or Safe Republican. Langworthy, who won re-election in 2024 by a wide margin, benefits from incumbency advantages, a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2 million in cash on hand, and an uncontested primary. Democratic nominee Aaron Gies, a St. Bonaventure University professor who won his June 2026 primary, faces structural headwinds in this Western New York and Southern Tier district. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national political shift, late-breaking scandals, or unusually strong Democratic turnout, though current trader consensus views these as low-probability outcomes before the November 3 general election.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,257
Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 4, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nick Langworthy holds a commanding lead in the NY-23 House race due to the district's consistent Republican lean, reflected in its R+10 Cook Partisan Voting Index and multiple forecaster ratings of Solid or Safe Republican. Langworthy, who won re-election in 2024 by a wide margin, benefits from incumbency advantages, a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2 million in cash on hand, and an uncontested primary. Democratic nominee Aaron Gies, a St. Bonaventure University professor who won his June 2026 primary, faces structural headwinds in this Western New York and Southern Tier district. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national political shift, late-breaking scandals, or unusually strong Democratic turnout, though current trader consensus views these as low-probability outcomes before the November 3 general election.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,257
Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 4, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Terkait

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"NY-23 House Election Winner" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 2 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Nick Langworthy (R)" di 96%, diikuti oleh "Aaron Gies (D)" di 4%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 96¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 96% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "NY-23 House Election Winner" telah menghasilkan $32.3K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jan 28, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "NY-23 House Election Winner," jelajahi 2 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "NY-23 House Election Winner" adalah "Nick Langworthy (R)" di 96%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 96% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Aaron Gies (D)" di 4%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "NY-23 House Election Winner" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.