Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1 with a 1M-token context window and strong SWE-bench Pro gains, sits just 35 Elo points behind OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard after the latter’s September 3 launch. Traders see limited time for further shifts before month-end, positioning Anthropic as the clear second-place lab with 77.8% implied odds. OpenAI’s narrow current lead and pricing adjustments reinforce the gap, while open-weight contenders like Moonshot and DeepSeek trail significantly on the community-voted benchmark. No major releases or benchmark reversals have surfaced in the past week to alter this dynamic.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 77.8%
OpenAI 17.5%
Alibaba 3.5%
Moonshot 2.0%
$69,140 Vol.
$69,140 Vol.

Anthropic
78%

OpenAI
18%

Alibaba
4%

Moonshot
2%

SpaceXAI
1%

Tencent
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meta
<1%

<1%

ByteDance
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Thinky
<1%

Poolside
<1%

Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 77.8%
OpenAI 17.5%
Alibaba 3.5%
Moonshot 2.0%
$69,140 Vol.
$69,140 Vol.

Anthropic
78%

OpenAI
18%

Alibaba
4%

Moonshot
2%

SpaceXAI
1%

Tencent
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meta
<1%

<1%

ByteDance
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Thinky
<1%

Poolside
<1%

Mistral
<1%
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ET
Sumber Resolusi
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Sumber Resolusi
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, released September 1 with a 1M-token context window and strong SWE-bench Pro gains, sits just 35 Elo points behind OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard after the latter’s September 3 launch. Traders see limited time for further shifts before month-end, positioning Anthropic as the clear second-place lab with 77.8% implied odds. OpenAI’s narrow current lead and pricing adjustments reinforce the gap, while open-weight contenders like Moonshot and DeepSeek trail significantly on the community-voted benchmark. No major releases or benchmark reversals have surfaced in the past week to alter this dynamic.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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