The Iranian regime’s survival through leadership decapitation and sustained external military pressure stands as the dominant factor behind the 92.5% implied probability that it will not fall before 2027. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 triggered rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, followed by consolidation of authority among Revolutionary Guard commanders and hard-line clerics who have prioritized internal repression and nationalist messaging. Widespread January 2026 protests across all provinces were met with lethal force and executions, while economic strain from sanctions and conflict has not produced elite defections or security-force fractures sufficient to trigger collapse. Recent missile exchanges with the United States and Israel as of August 31, 2026, alongside tightened domestic controls, further signal institutional continuity rather than imminent breakdown. Trader consensus reflects this demonstrated resilience amid ongoing regional tensions.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiYa
8% peluang
$25,352,431 Vol.
$25,352,431 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Ya
8% peluang
$25,352,431 Vol.
$25,352,431 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime’s survival through leadership decapitation and sustained external military pressure stands as the dominant factor behind the 92.5% implied probability that it will not fall before 2027. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 triggered rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, followed by consolidation of authority among Revolutionary Guard commanders and hard-line clerics who have prioritized internal repression and nationalist messaging. Widespread January 2026 protests across all provinces were met with lethal force and executions, while economic strain from sanctions and conflict has not produced elite defections or security-force fractures sufficient to trigger collapse. Recent missile exchanges with the United States and Israel as of August 31, 2026, alongside tightened domestic controls, further signal institutional continuity rather than imminent breakdown. Trader consensus reflects this demonstrated resilience amid ongoing regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$25,352,431Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime’s survival through leadership decapitation and sustained external military pressure stands as the dominant factor behind the 92.5% implied probability that it will not fall before 2027. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 triggered rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, followed by consolidation of authority among Revolutionary Guard commanders and hard-line clerics who have prioritized internal repression and nationalist messaging. Widespread January 2026 protests across all provinces were met with lethal force and executions, while economic strain from sanctions and conflict has not produced elite defections or security-force fractures sufficient to trigger collapse. Recent missile exchanges with the United States and Israel as of August 31, 2026, alongside tightened domestic controls, further signal institutional continuity rather than imminent breakdown. Trader consensus reflects this demonstrated resilience amid ongoing regional tensions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$25,352,431Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime’s survival through leadership decapitation and sustained external military pressure stands as the dominant factor behind the 92.5% implied probability that it will not fall before 2027. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 triggered rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, followed by consolidation of authority among Revolutionary Guard commanders and hard-line clerics who have prioritized internal repression and nationalist messaging. Widespread January 2026 protests across all provinces were met with lethal force and executions, while economic strain from sanctions and conflict has not produced elite defections or security-force fractures sufficient to trigger collapse. Recent missile exchanges with the United States and Israel as of August 31, 2026, alongside tightened domestic controls, further signal institutional continuity rather than imminent breakdown. Trader consensus reflects this demonstrated resilience amid ongoing regional tensions.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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