Kat Cammack's position as the strong favorite in Florida's 3rd Congressional District stems from the seat's established Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 Cook PVI and her 61.6% victory in 2024. As incumbent since 2021, she secured the Republican nomination without opposition and holds a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2 million, compared to Democratic nominee Seth Harp's roughly $38,000. Harp advanced from the August 18 primary but faces structural headwinds in a district spanning rural northern Florida counties and areas like Gainesville and Ocala. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the race as safe or solid Republican. Traders assign Cammack a 93.5% implied probability based on these factors. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or unanticipated national partisan shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoFL-03 House Election Winner
FL-03 House Election Winner
$29,972 Vol.
$29,972 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Kat Cammack (R)
94%
Seth Harp (D)
6%
$29,972 Vol.
$29,972 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Kat Cammack (R)
$11,696 Vol.
94%
Seth Harp (D)
$18,276 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kat Cammack's position as the strong favorite in Florida's 3rd Congressional District stems from the seat's established Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 Cook PVI and her 61.6% victory in 2024. As incumbent since 2021, she secured the Republican nomination without opposition and holds a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2 million, compared to Democratic nominee Seth Harp's roughly $38,000. Harp advanced from the August 18 primary but faces structural headwinds in a district spanning rural northern Florida counties and areas like Gainesville and Ocala. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the race as safe or solid Republican. Traders assign Cammack a 93.5% implied probability based on these factors. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or unanticipated national partisan shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$29,972Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kat Cammack's position as the strong favorite in Florida's 3rd Congressional District stems from the seat's established Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 Cook PVI and her 61.6% victory in 2024. As incumbent since 2021, she secured the Republican nomination without opposition and holds a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2 million, compared to Democratic nominee Seth Harp's roughly $38,000. Harp advanced from the August 18 primary but faces structural headwinds in a district spanning rural northern Florida counties and areas like Gainesville and Ocala. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the race as safe or solid Republican. Traders assign Cammack a 93.5% implied probability based on these factors. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or unanticipated national partisan shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$29,972Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Kat Cammack's position as the strong favorite in Florida's 3rd Congressional District stems from the seat's established Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 Cook PVI and her 61.6% victory in 2024. As incumbent since 2021, she secured the Republican nomination without opposition and holds a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $2 million, compared to Democratic nominee Seth Harp's roughly $38,000. Harp advanced from the August 18 primary but faces structural headwinds in a district spanning rural northern Florida counties and areas like Gainesville and Ocala. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the race as safe or solid Republican. Traders assign Cammack a 93.5% implied probability based on these factors. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health event, or unanticipated national partisan shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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