The high market-implied odds favoring no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflect the contained scope of the Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship earlier this year—limited to 13 cases and three deaths—and the absence of sustained person-to-person transmission beyond close contacts. Official CDC and WHO monitoring concluded by late June after 42-day quarantines yielded no secondary U.S. or widespread cases, consistent with the virus's primary rodent-borne transmission via aerosolized excreta and the requirement for prolonged close contact even in the Andes strain. Endemic activity in Argentina (102 cases this season) and Chile (49 cases, 19 deaths) remains within historical patterns without exponential growth or official pandemic designation. While climate-driven rodent surges could elevate local incidence, surveillance data through August show no evidence of the efficient human spread needed for pandemic thresholds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPandemia di Hantavirus nel 2026?
Pandemia di Hantavirus nel 2026?
Sì
4% probabilità
$17,980,344 Vol.
$17,980,344 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
4% probabilità
$17,980,344 Vol.
$17,980,344 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The high market-implied odds favoring no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflect the contained scope of the Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship earlier this year—limited to 13 cases and three deaths—and the absence of sustained person-to-person transmission beyond close contacts. Official CDC and WHO monitoring concluded by late June after 42-day quarantines yielded no secondary U.S. or widespread cases, consistent with the virus's primary rodent-borne transmission via aerosolized excreta and the requirement for prolonged close contact even in the Andes strain. Endemic activity in Argentina (102 cases this season) and Chile (49 cases, 19 deaths) remains within historical patterns without exponential growth or official pandemic designation. While climate-driven rodent surges could elevate local incidence, surveillance data through August show no evidence of the efficient human spread needed for pandemic thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volume
$17,980,344Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The high market-implied odds favoring no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflect the contained scope of the Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship earlier this year—limited to 13 cases and three deaths—and the absence of sustained person-to-person transmission beyond close contacts. Official CDC and WHO monitoring concluded by late June after 42-day quarantines yielded no secondary U.S. or widespread cases, consistent with the virus's primary rodent-borne transmission via aerosolized excreta and the requirement for prolonged close contact even in the Andes strain. Endemic activity in Argentina (102 cases this season) and Chile (49 cases, 19 deaths) remains within historical patterns without exponential growth or official pandemic designation. While climate-driven rodent surges could elevate local incidence, surveillance data through August show no evidence of the efficient human spread needed for pandemic thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$17,980,344Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The high market-implied odds favoring no hantavirus pandemic in 2026 reflect the contained scope of the Andes virus cluster on the MV Hondius cruise ship earlier this year—limited to 13 cases and three deaths—and the absence of sustained person-to-person transmission beyond close contacts. Official CDC and WHO monitoring concluded by late June after 42-day quarantines yielded no secondary U.S. or widespread cases, consistent with the virus's primary rodent-borne transmission via aerosolized excreta and the requirement for prolonged close contact even in the Andes strain. Endemic activity in Argentina (102 cases this season) and Chile (49 cases, 19 deaths) remains within historical patterns without exponential growth or official pandemic designation. While climate-driven rodent surges could elevate local incidence, surveillance data through August show no evidence of the efficient human spread needed for pandemic thresholds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti