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icon for Elezioni al Senato dell'Illinois: affluenza alle urne
Politica·Affluenza

Elezioni al Senato dell'Illinois: affluenza alle urne

icon for Elezioni al Senato dell'Illinois: affluenza alle urne
Politica·Affluenza

Elezioni al Senato dell'Illinois: affluenza alle urne

4.25M-4.5M 39%

4M-4.25M 37%

4.5M-4.75M 13%

3.75M-4M 11%

Polymarket
NUOVO

4.25M-4.5M 39%

4M-4.25M 37%

4.5M-4.75M 13%

3.75M-4M 11%

Polymarket
NUOVO

<3.25M

$270 Vol.

2%

3.25M-3.5M

$1,070 Vol.

1%

3.5M-3.75M

$243 Vol.

5%

3.75M-4M

$232 Vol.

18%

4M-4.25M

$1,425 Vol.

37%

4.25M-4.5M

$1,223 Vol.

45%

4.5M-4.75M

$1,229 Vol.

13%

4.75M+

$495 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The open U.S. Senate seat in Illinois, following Richard Durbin’s retirement, features Democrat Juliana Stratton against Republican Don Tracy in a race rated Solid Democratic by forecasters. Trader consensus centers on 4–4.5 million total votes because historical midterm turnout in the state, combined with its 12.6 million population and recent primary participation exceeding 2022 levels, points to moderate overall participation. The absence of a highly competitive contest limits enthusiasm-driven spikes, while the concurrent governor’s race and standard early and absentee voting patterns keep the distribution tight between the two leading brackets. Developments such as shifts in statewide polling, changes in Democratic base mobilization, or unexpected national events closer to November 3 could widen separation by altering projected participation rates.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,186
Data di fine
3 nov 2026
Mercato aperto
Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The open U.S. Senate seat in Illinois, following Richard Durbin’s retirement, features Democrat Juliana Stratton against Republican Don Tracy in a race rated Solid Democratic by forecasters. Trader consensus centers on 4–4.5 million total votes because historical midterm turnout in the state, combined with its 12.6 million population and recent primary participation exceeding 2022 levels, points to moderate overall participation. The absence of a highly competitive contest limits enthusiasm-driven spikes, while the concurrent governor’s race and standard early and absentee voting patterns keep the distribution tight between the two leading brackets. Developments such as shifts in statewide polling, changes in Democratic base mobilization, or unexpected national events closer to November 3 could widen separation by altering projected participation rates.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,186
Data di fine
3 nov 2026
Mercato aperto
Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...

Correlati

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Il totale dei voti espressi nelle elezioni di medio termine del 2026 per il Senatore della Florida sarà compreso tra 8.000.000 e 8.250.000?

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Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Elezioni al Senato dell'Illinois: affluenza alle urne" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 8 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "4.25M-4.5M" a 45%, seguito da "4M-4.25M" a 37%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 45¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 45% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Elezioni al Senato dell'Illinois: affluenza alle urne" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Aug 18, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Elezioni al Senato dell'Illinois: affluenza alle urne", esplora i 8 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Elezioni al Senato dell'Illinois: affluenza alle urne" è "4.25M-4.5M" a 45%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 45% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "4M-4.25M" a 37%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Elezioni al Senato dell'Illinois: affluenza alle urne" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.