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icon for Elezioni per il Senato del New Mexico: affluenza alle urne
Politica·Affluenza

Elezioni per il Senato del New Mexico: affluenza alle urne

icon for Elezioni per il Senato del New Mexico: affluenza alle urne
Politica·Affluenza

Elezioni per il Senato del New Mexico: affluenza alle urne

700K-750K 41%

750K-800K 34%

850.000+ 8.7%

650K-700K 8%

Polymarket
NUOVO

700K-750K 41%

750K-800K 34%

850.000+ 8.7%

650K-700K 8%

Polymarket
NUOVO

<550K

$358 Vol.

5%

550K-600K

$139 Vol.

5%

600K-650K

$941 Vol.

6%

650K-700K

$116 Vol.

13%

700K-750K

$431 Vol.

41%

750K-800K

$406 Vol.

34%

800.000-850.000

$156 Vol.

13%

850.000+

$121 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The low-competition dynamics of the 2026 New Mexico U.S. Senate race, with incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján facing a minimally funded Republican challenger in a contest rated Solid or Safe Democratic by forecasters, form the primary driver behind trader consensus favoring 700K-750K total votes.** Democratic registration advantages and midterm turnout patterns typically produce lower participation than presidential years, while limited campaign intensity on both sides further moderates expectations. Recent voting reforms, including permanent absentee ballot access and semi-open primaries, supported above-average primary turnout of 346,460 ballots (24.6%) in June 2026 and may sustain elevated general election participation through broader independent access. These factors, alongside historical midterm benchmarks and absentee usage trends, concentrate probabilities in the 550K-800K range, with the leading bracket reflecting balanced assessments of mobilization and structural access.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,667
Data di fine
3 nov 2026
Mercato aperto
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The low-competition dynamics of the 2026 New Mexico U.S. Senate race, with incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján facing a minimally funded Republican challenger in a contest rated Solid or Safe Democratic by forecasters, form the primary driver behind trader consensus favoring 700K-750K total votes.** Democratic registration advantages and midterm turnout patterns typically produce lower participation than presidential years, while limited campaign intensity on both sides further moderates expectations. Recent voting reforms, including permanent absentee ballot access and semi-open primaries, supported above-average primary turnout of 346,460 ballots (24.6%) in June 2026 and may sustain elevated general election participation through broader independent access. These factors, alongside historical midterm benchmarks and absentee usage trends, concentrate probabilities in the 550K-800K range, with the leading bracket reflecting balanced assessments of mobilization and structural access.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Mexico, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,667
Data di fine
3 nov 2026
Mercato aperto
Aug 18, 2026, 10:23 AM ET

Risolutore

0x69c47De9D...

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Domande frequenti

"Elezioni per il Senato del New Mexico: affluenza alle urne" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 8 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "700K-750K" a 41%, seguito da "750K-800K" a 34%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 41¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 41% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Elezioni per il Senato del New Mexico: affluenza alle urne" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Aug 18, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Elezioni per il Senato del New Mexico: affluenza alle urne", esplora i 8 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Elezioni per il Senato del New Mexico: affluenza alle urne" è "700K-750K" a 41%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 41% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "750K-800K" a 34%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Elezioni per il Senato del New Mexico: affluenza alle urne" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.