Meta's Watermelon model, the successor to its Muse Spark series, remains in training as of early September 2026 with an internal October target for release. July updates from AI chief Alexandr Wang highlighted parity with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on internal benchmarks, driven by an order-of-magnitude increase in compute over the prior Avocado-codenamed model. This reflects Meta's accelerated frontier push, including recent Muse Spark 1.3 updates focused on coding and agentic capabilities, amid competition with OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Key near-term catalysts include confirmation of the October timeline, independent benchmark results, or any shifts in Meta's $125-145 billion infrastructure spend that could influence development pace.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl modello "Watermelon" di Meta rilasciato da...?
Il modello "Watermelon" di Meta rilasciato da...?
$12,750 Vol.
30 set 2026
30 settembre
5%
31 ottobre
74%
30 novembre
94%
$12,750 Vol.
30 settembre
$3,455 Vol.
5%
31 ottobre
$6,507 Vol.
74%
30 novembre
$2,787 Vol.
94%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's Watermelon model, the successor to its Muse Spark series, remains in training as of early September 2026 with an internal October target for release. July updates from AI chief Alexandr Wang highlighted parity with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on internal benchmarks, driven by an order-of-magnitude increase in compute over the prior Avocado-codenamed model. This reflects Meta's accelerated frontier push, including recent Muse Spark 1.3 updates focused on coding and agentic capabilities, amid competition with OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Key near-term catalysts include confirmation of the October timeline, independent benchmark results, or any shifts in Meta's $125-145 billion infrastructure spend that could influence development pace.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$12,750Data di fine
30 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's Watermelon model, the successor to its Muse Spark series, remains in training as of early September 2026 with an internal October target for release. July updates from AI chief Alexandr Wang highlighted parity with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on internal benchmarks, driven by an order-of-magnitude increase in compute over the prior Avocado-codenamed model. This reflects Meta's accelerated frontier push, including recent Muse Spark 1.3 updates focused on coding and agentic capabilities, amid competition with OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Key near-term catalysts include confirmation of the October timeline, independent benchmark results, or any shifts in Meta's $125-145 billion infrastructure spend that could influence development pace.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$12,750Data di fine
30 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Meta's Watermelon model, the successor to its Muse Spark series, remains in training as of early September 2026 with an internal October target for release. July updates from AI chief Alexandr Wang highlighted parity with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on internal benchmarks, driven by an order-of-magnitude increase in compute over the prior Avocado-codenamed model. This reflects Meta's accelerated frontier push, including recent Muse Spark 1.3 updates focused on coding and agentic capabilities, amid competition with OpenAI, Anthropic, and others. Key near-term catalysts include confirmation of the October timeline, independent benchmark results, or any shifts in Meta's $125-145 billion infrastructure spend that could influence development pace.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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