Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding lead in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to his established record, strong fundraising edge exceeding $8 million, and the state's consistent Democratic tilt in recent federal contests. Republican Larry Marker, an oil and gas operator who qualified only as a write-in after the primary candidate was disqualified, remains largely unknown to voters and has raised under $35,000. An August poll showed Luján ahead 53-38 percent among likely voters. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, including the November 3 general election timeline and limited campaign infrastructure for the challenger. Late developments such as a significant health event for the incumbent, major scandal, or an unexpected national shift could still alter the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni del Senato del New Mexico
Vincitore delle elezioni del Senato del New Mexico
$25,948 Vol.
$25,948 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Ben Ray Luján (D)
97%
Larry Marker (R)
4%
$25,948 Vol.
$25,948 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Ben Ray Luján (D)
$16,689 Vol.
97%
Larry Marker (R)
$9,258 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding lead in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to his established record, strong fundraising edge exceeding $8 million, and the state's consistent Democratic tilt in recent federal contests. Republican Larry Marker, an oil and gas operator who qualified only as a write-in after the primary candidate was disqualified, remains largely unknown to voters and has raised under $35,000. An August poll showed Luján ahead 53-38 percent among likely voters. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, including the November 3 general election timeline and limited campaign infrastructure for the challenger. Late developments such as a significant health event for the incumbent, major scandal, or an unexpected national shift could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercato aperto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$25,948Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding lead in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to his established record, strong fundraising edge exceeding $8 million, and the state's consistent Democratic tilt in recent federal contests. Republican Larry Marker, an oil and gas operator who qualified only as a write-in after the primary candidate was disqualified, remains largely unknown to voters and has raised under $35,000. An August poll showed Luján ahead 53-38 percent among likely voters. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, including the November 3 general election timeline and limited campaign infrastructure for the challenger. Late developments such as a significant health event for the incumbent, major scandal, or an unexpected national shift could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$25,948Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding lead in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to his established record, strong fundraising edge exceeding $8 million, and the state's consistent Democratic tilt in recent federal contests. Republican Larry Marker, an oil and gas operator who qualified only as a write-in after the primary candidate was disqualified, remains largely unknown to voters and has raised under $35,000. An August poll showed Luján ahead 53-38 percent among likely voters. Trader consensus reflects these fundamentals, including the November 3 general election timeline and limited campaign infrastructure for the challenger. Late developments such as a significant health event for the incumbent, major scandal, or an unexpected national shift could still alter the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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