Micah Lasher holds a commanding lead in the NY-12 general election market because the Manhattan district maintains a deep Democratic registration edge exceeding six-to-one, combined with his June primary victory as the endorsed successor to retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler. Lasher benefited from endorsements by Governor Kathy Hochul, former Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and other party leaders, plus substantial outside spending that helped secure roughly 39 percent in a crowded field. Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle, an attorney running without primary opposition, confronts minimal organized support and limited campaign resources in this urban seat encompassing Midtown and the Upper East and West Sides. The November 3 ballot offers few realistic pathways for a shift absent an unforeseen late development such as a major candidate withdrawal or scandal.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNY-12 House Election Winner
NY-12 House Election Winner
$32,897 Vol.
$32,897 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Micah Lasher (D)
97%
Caroline Shinkle (R)
<1%
$32,897 Vol.
$32,897 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Micah Lasher (D)
$17,262 Vol.
97%
Caroline Shinkle (R)
$15,635 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher holds a commanding lead in the NY-12 general election market because the Manhattan district maintains a deep Democratic registration edge exceeding six-to-one, combined with his June primary victory as the endorsed successor to retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler. Lasher benefited from endorsements by Governor Kathy Hochul, former Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and other party leaders, plus substantial outside spending that helped secure roughly 39 percent in a crowded field. Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle, an attorney running without primary opposition, confronts minimal organized support and limited campaign resources in this urban seat encompassing Midtown and the Upper East and West Sides. The November 3 ballot offers few realistic pathways for a shift absent an unforeseen late development such as a major candidate withdrawal or scandal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$32,897Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Micah Lasher holds a commanding lead in the NY-12 general election market because the Manhattan district maintains a deep Democratic registration edge exceeding six-to-one, combined with his June primary victory as the endorsed successor to retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler. Lasher benefited from endorsements by Governor Kathy Hochul, former Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and other party leaders, plus substantial outside spending that helped secure roughly 39 percent in a crowded field. Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle, an attorney running without primary opposition, confronts minimal organized support and limited campaign resources in this urban seat encompassing Midtown and the Upper East and West Sides. The November 3 ballot offers few realistic pathways for a shift absent an unforeseen late development such as a major candidate withdrawal or scandal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,897Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Micah Lasher holds a commanding lead in the NY-12 general election market because the Manhattan district maintains a deep Democratic registration edge exceeding six-to-one, combined with his June primary victory as the endorsed successor to retiring Representative Jerrold Nadler. Lasher benefited from endorsements by Governor Kathy Hochul, former Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and other party leaders, plus substantial outside spending that helped secure roughly 39 percent in a crowded field. Republican nominee Caroline Shinkle, an attorney running without primary opposition, confronts minimal organized support and limited campaign resources in this urban seat encompassing Midtown and the Upper East and West Sides. The November 3 ballot offers few realistic pathways for a shift absent an unforeseen late development such as a major candidate withdrawal or scandal.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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