Cait Conley holds a modest edge in the NY-17 House race as the Democratic nominee following her June 2026 primary victory over multiple challengers in the Hudson Valley swing district. The seat’s partisan composition, with roughly 80,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans and a recent Democratic presidential lean, supports trader consensus around her 56 percent implied probability. Incumbent Republican Mike Lawler benefits from his established constituent service record and bipartisan positioning, yet faces a toss-up rating from major forecasters amid heavy outside spending and national party focus on House control. Recent campaign activity, including Lawler’s September attacks on Conley’s ties to AI contractors and defense policy, highlights the contest’s intensity ahead of the November 3 general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$15,358 Vol.
$15,358 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Cait Conley (D)
55%
Mike Lawler (R)
41%
$15,358 Vol.
$15,358 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Cait Conley (D)
$6,436 Vol.
55%
Mike Lawler (R)
$8,922 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cait Conley holds a modest edge in the NY-17 House race as the Democratic nominee following her June 2026 primary victory over multiple challengers in the Hudson Valley swing district. The seat’s partisan composition, with roughly 80,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans and a recent Democratic presidential lean, supports trader consensus around her 56 percent implied probability. Incumbent Republican Mike Lawler benefits from his established constituent service record and bipartisan positioning, yet faces a toss-up rating from major forecasters amid heavy outside spending and national party focus on House control. Recent campaign activity, including Lawler’s September attacks on Conley’s ties to AI contractors and defense policy, highlights the contest’s intensity ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$15,358Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cait Conley holds a modest edge in the NY-17 House race as the Democratic nominee following her June 2026 primary victory over multiple challengers in the Hudson Valley swing district. The seat’s partisan composition, with roughly 80,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans and a recent Democratic presidential lean, supports trader consensus around her 56 percent implied probability. Incumbent Republican Mike Lawler benefits from his established constituent service record and bipartisan positioning, yet faces a toss-up rating from major forecasters amid heavy outside spending and national party focus on House control. Recent campaign activity, including Lawler’s September attacks on Conley’s ties to AI contractors and defense policy, highlights the contest’s intensity ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,358Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Cait Conley holds a modest edge in the NY-17 House race as the Democratic nominee following her June 2026 primary victory over multiple challengers in the Hudson Valley swing district. The seat’s partisan composition, with roughly 80,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans and a recent Democratic presidential lean, supports trader consensus around her 56 percent implied probability. Incumbent Republican Mike Lawler benefits from his established constituent service record and bipartisan positioning, yet faces a toss-up rating from major forecasters amid heavy outside spending and national party focus on House control. Recent campaign activity, including Lawler’s September attacks on Conley’s ties to AI contractors and defense policy, highlights the contest’s intensity ahead of the November 3 general election.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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