Recent polling from Datafolha in mid-September shows a tight three-way contest for Piauí’s two Senate seats among incumbents Marcelo Castro (MDB) and Ciro Nogueira (PP) alongside federal deputy Júlio César (PSD), with the top names separated by just a few points amid high undecided and null shares. Júlio César’s stronger performance in second-preference scenarios across multiple surveys helps sustain trader consensus around his elevated probability for the runner-up position. Ciro Nogueira’s notably higher rejection ratings in earlier fieldwork continue to cap his upside, while the overall closeness of the race and the mechanics of dual-vote balloting keep most minor candidates at low implied probabilities. No major campaign events or shifts have emerged in the final weeks to widen the gap.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoJulio Cesar 55.3%
Marcelo Castro 24.0%
Ciro Nogueira 24%
Tiago Junqueira 4.8%
$45,977 Vol.
$45,977 Vol.
Julio Cesar
55%
Marcelo Castro
24%
Ciro Nogueira
24%
Tiago Junqueira
5%
Francinaldo Leão
<1%
Alexandre Mariano
<1%
Cloves José
<1%
Jardenya Bezerra
<1%
Maria Madalena Nunes
<1%
Missionário Evandro Craveiro
<1%
Toinho Dufrango
<1%
Antônio Barros
<1%
Antônio José Lira
<1%
Danniel Rocha
<1%
Dionisio Carvalho
<1%
Irmão Evandro Marques
<1%
Jorge Lopes
<1%
Maggiore Paulo Roberto
<1%
Pastore Sena
<1%
Pedro Laurentino
<1%
Julio Cesar 55.3%
Marcelo Castro 24.0%
Ciro Nogueira 24%
Tiago Junqueira 4.8%
$45,977 Vol.
$45,977 Vol.
Julio Cesar
55%
Marcelo Castro
24%
Ciro Nogueira
24%
Tiago Junqueira
5%
Francinaldo Leão
<1%
Alexandre Mariano
<1%
Cloves José
<1%
Jardenya Bezerra
<1%
Maria Madalena Nunes
<1%
Missionário Evandro Craveiro
<1%
Toinho Dufrango
<1%
Antônio Barros
<1%
Antônio José Lira
<1%
Danniel Rocha
<1%
Dionisio Carvalho
<1%
Irmão Evandro Marques
<1%
Jorge Lopes
<1%
Maggiore Paulo Roberto
<1%
Pastore Sena
<1%
Pedro Laurentino
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercato aperto: Aug 17, 2026, 6:13 AM ET
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Datafolha in mid-September shows a tight three-way contest for Piauí’s two Senate seats among incumbents Marcelo Castro (MDB) and Ciro Nogueira (PP) alongside federal deputy Júlio César (PSD), with the top names separated by just a few points amid high undecided and null shares. Júlio César’s stronger performance in second-preference scenarios across multiple surveys helps sustain trader consensus around his elevated probability for the runner-up position. Ciro Nogueira’s notably higher rejection ratings in earlier fieldwork continue to cap his upside, while the overall closeness of the race and the mechanics of dual-vote balloting keep most minor candidates at low implied probabilities. No major campaign events or shifts have emerged in the final weeks to widen the gap.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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