Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, including U.S. naval escorts for limited commercial traffic amid Iranian threats, drone strikes, and residual mine risks, drive trader focus on which nations will deploy warships by year-end. Disruptions have slashed daily transits to roughly 10 vessels from a pre-crisis average near 130, elevating Brent crude volatility—with prices recently near $80–90 per barrel after earlier spikes above $125—and widening refined-product crack spreads amid Gulf export shortfalls exceeding 9 million barrels per day. U.S. carriers such as the Abraham Lincoln and supporting destroyers, already positioned in the Gulf of Oman, underscore sustained military logistics costs and insurance premia that amplify energy-market uncertainty. Key near-term catalysts include mine-clearance verification, potential U.S.-Iran talks mediated by Qatar or Oman, and any new carrier rotations, all of which could shift naval footprints and associated supply-risk pricing before December 31.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuali paesi invieranno navi da guerra attraverso lo Stretto di Hormuz entro il 31 dicembre?
Quali paesi invieranno navi da guerra attraverso lo Stretto di Hormuz entro il 31 dicembre?
$37,830 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Italia
19%
Stati Uniti
17%
Regno Unito
18%
Paesi Bassi
9%
Germania
9%
Australia
9%
Grecia
24%
Francia
7%
$37,830 Vol.
Italia
$16 Vol.
19%
Stati Uniti
$7,287 Vol.
17%
Regno Unito
$57 Vol.
18%
Paesi Bassi
$16,402 Vol.
9%
Germania
$13 Vol.
9%
Australia
$0 Vol.
9%
Grecia
$52 Vol.
24%
Francia
$14,005 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, including U.S. naval escorts for limited commercial traffic amid Iranian threats, drone strikes, and residual mine risks, drive trader focus on which nations will deploy warships by year-end. Disruptions have slashed daily transits to roughly 10 vessels from a pre-crisis average near 130, elevating Brent crude volatility—with prices recently near $80–90 per barrel after earlier spikes above $125—and widening refined-product crack spreads amid Gulf export shortfalls exceeding 9 million barrels per day. U.S. carriers such as the Abraham Lincoln and supporting destroyers, already positioned in the Gulf of Oman, underscore sustained military logistics costs and insurance premia that amplify energy-market uncertainty. Key near-term catalysts include mine-clearance verification, potential U.S.-Iran talks mediated by Qatar or Oman, and any new carrier rotations, all of which could shift naval footprints and associated supply-risk pricing before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Mercato aperto: Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$37,830Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, including U.S. naval escorts for limited commercial traffic amid Iranian threats, drone strikes, and residual mine risks, drive trader focus on which nations will deploy warships by year-end. Disruptions have slashed daily transits to roughly 10 vessels from a pre-crisis average near 130, elevating Brent crude volatility—with prices recently near $80–90 per barrel after earlier spikes above $125—and widening refined-product crack spreads amid Gulf export shortfalls exceeding 9 million barrels per day. U.S. carriers such as the Abraham Lincoln and supporting destroyers, already positioned in the Gulf of Oman, underscore sustained military logistics costs and insurance premia that amplify energy-market uncertainty. Key near-term catalysts include mine-clearance verification, potential U.S.-Iran talks mediated by Qatar or Oman, and any new carrier rotations, all of which could shift naval footprints and associated supply-risk pricing before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$37,830Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, including U.S. naval escorts for limited commercial traffic amid Iranian threats, drone strikes, and residual mine risks, drive trader focus on which nations will deploy warships by year-end. Disruptions have slashed daily transits to roughly 10 vessels from a pre-crisis average near 130, elevating Brent crude volatility—with prices recently near $80–90 per barrel after earlier spikes above $125—and widening refined-product crack spreads amid Gulf export shortfalls exceeding 9 million barrels per day. U.S. carriers such as the Abraham Lincoln and supporting destroyers, already positioned in the Gulf of Oman, underscore sustained military logistics costs and insurance premia that amplify energy-market uncertainty. Key near-term catalysts include mine-clearance verification, potential U.S.-Iran talks mediated by Qatar or Oman, and any new carrier rotations, all of which could shift naval footprints and associated supply-risk pricing before December 31.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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