**Trader consensus on “No” at 88.5% reflects the absence of any full-scale U.S. invasion of a Latin American country through the first eight months of 2026, combined with the pattern of limited, targeted operations rather than sustained ground occupations.** In January 2026, U.S. forces conducted a special-operations raid in Venezuela that captured President Nicolás Maduro, accompanied by airstrikes on select targets. U.S. officials described the action as a precise strike coordinated with local partners and explicitly distinguished it from an occupation or broader invasion. Subsequent activity has centered on maritime interdictions against suspected drug vessels and joint counter-narcotics operations with host governments in Ecuador, Colombia, and elsewhere under frameworks such as the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition. These efforts involve host-nation approval, shared command elements, and focus on designated criminal groups rather than regime change or territorial control. No comparable large-scale military incursion has occurred or been credibly scheduled for the remainder of the year. While rhetoric around Cuba and cartel networks has included military options, current posture emphasizes intelligence support, targeted strikes, and bilateral cooperation. With four months remaining, the absence of new escalatory triggers or congressional authorizations for sustained combat operations supports the market’s strong lean toward no invasion occurring in 2026.